369 Gun Clb #21

Woodland, WA 98674

$99,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,294 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,529/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$539
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $940/mo
• Annual: $11,278/yr
• Cap rate: 22.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.15%
• DSCR: 3.63
• 1% rule: 2.55%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $940 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#152 in WA, #3,252 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Woodland School District (town): math 48% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #94 of 291 in WA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Fork Elementary School (445 students, 36% FRL); Woodland High School (658 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 2.7% in Woodland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.