Alford Plan

Spring Hill, FL 34608

$269,990D-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 206 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,426/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,524
• Tax + insurance: −$551
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-157/mo
• Annual: $-1,889/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.34%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $81,351

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (10.1% below list).
• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Explorer K-8 (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 1,617 students, 69% FRL); Frank W. Springstead High School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 1,896 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 602 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,426/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.