Alford Plan · Spring Hill, FL 34608

$269,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily · 161 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Alford floorplan, available in Somerset Bay in Spring Hill, Florida, is a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and over 1,700 square feet of open-concept living space. Perfect for families of all sizes, this plan features a bright and airy layout that blends functionality with modern style. At the heart of the home, the kitchen impresses with sleek quartz countertops, a center island, and stainless-steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space for cooking and entertaining. The adjoining dining and living areas open up to the outdoor patio, perfect for relaxing or hosting guests.

Key facts

• Outdoor patio
• Center island
• Garage

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• SLEEK QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $290,487.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-600/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Explorer K-8 (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 1,617 students, 69% FRL); Frank W. Springstead High School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 1,896 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 528 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,562/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,487
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -7.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4676 Kona Cir	0.05mi	5/2.0	1,708 (-2%)	2mo	$300,665	$176	93
4035 Kona Cir	0.12mi	5/2.0	1,739 (0%)	2mo	$278,070	$160	92
4049 Kona Cir	0.12mi	5/2.0	1,739 (0%)	3mo	$276,990	$159	92
4706 Kona Cir	0.06mi	5/2.0	1,708 (-2%)	3mo	$299,990	$176	91
4056 Kona Cir	0.08mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-10%)	1mo	$258,070	$165	74
4050 Kona Cir	0.08mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-10%)	1mo	$264,290	$169	73
4026 Kona Cir	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-10%)	2mo	$268,070	$172	72
4043 Kona Cir	0.12mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-10%)	1mo	$262,990	$169	71
4654 Kona Cir	0.05mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	0mo	$288,070	$192	69
4694 Kona Cir	0.06mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	2mo	$286,990	$192	67
4714 Kona Cir	0.07mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	3mo	$285,990	$191	66
9258 Regatta Cir	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,929 (+11%)	9mo	$325,000	$168	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,684
• Equity at exit: $43,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-83,023
• Equity at exit: $25,116

Cash invested: $81,336 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.0 mo (33%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $326,388 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 125 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34608

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 528
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,523
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$363 /mo · $4,357/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,625

Max offer price $283,253

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $50	+0% $-50	+5% $-150	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-151	+0% $-50	+5% $51	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $24	base $-50	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,622
• Closing costs: $8,715
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3933 Antigua Way Spring Hill, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1975	$2,429	$1.23	79d	1	0.26mi
5156 Florentine Ct Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1895	$2,000	$1.06	44d	1	1.26mi
11167 Nexus St Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,769	$1.10	54d	1	1.29mi
3427 Hartley Rd Spring Hill, FL	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,100	$1.14	40d	1	1.33mi
11228 Roman St Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	2222	$2,000	$0.90	54d	1	1.37mi
3214 Blythe Ave Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	120d	1	1.42mi
9232 Jena Rd Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	2175	$2,500	$1.15	10d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $269,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered garage parking space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: New construction plan (Alford)
• Exterior features: Property marketed as the Alford plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,739 total living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $269,990 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $269,990 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $269,990 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $269,990 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $269,990 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $269,990 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $269,990 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $269,990 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $269,990 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 140 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 137 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $269,990 Active 136 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $269,990 Active 135 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 134 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $269,990 Active 131 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 130 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 129 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 128 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 126 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $269,990 Active 125 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 124 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $269,990 Active 123 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $269,990 Active 122 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 121 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 120 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 119 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $269,990 Active 118 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $269,990 Active 117 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $269,990 Active 116 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $269,990 Active 115 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $269,990 Active 114 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $269,990 Active 112 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $269,990 Active 111 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 110 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 109 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 106 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $269,990 Active 105 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $269,990 Active 104 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 103 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 101 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 99 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 98 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,272
• − Property taxes: −$4,357
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,459
• − Management: −$2,459
• − Depreciation: −$8,451
• Taxable loss: −$5,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,321
• After-tax cash flow: $721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Spring Hill, Florida, is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a thoughtfully designed floorplan with a bright and airy layout, modern kitchen, and private bathrooms. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some modern lighting fixtures to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Neutral paint can be refreshed to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Lighting — Adding modern lighting fixtures can improve the ambiance and increase the home's value ↑
• Both Decor — Updating decor can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Explorer K-8 F FL #1,471/2,144 Nat'l #19,191/41,679 High Frank W. Springstead High School D+ FL #175/667 Nat'l #5,448/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 189,218 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,658
• Household income: $64,345
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.94%
• Current HPI: 305.1933
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $269,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered garage parking space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: New construction plan (Alford)
• Exterior features: Property marketed as the Alford plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,739 total living area)