19 Reynolds Rd

East Shoreham, NY 11786

$649,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,006 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,408
• Tax + insurance: −$1,421
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $-1,077/mo
• Annual: $-12,922/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $181,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $475k (26.9% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $460k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#724 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shoreham-Wading River Central School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #36 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Miller Avenue School (427 students, 0% FRL); Albert G Prodell Middle School (math 62% / reading 87%, grade A, #61 of 729 statewide, top 9%, 456 students, 0% FRL); Shoreham-Wading River High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 708 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in East Shoreham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.