19 Reynolds Rd · East Shoreham, NY 11786

$649,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1975 0.52 ac lot $324/sqft · 17% below area Est $782k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Jomar 4Bedroom, 2 Car Garage, Colonial in North Shoreham, Shoreham Wading River School District. Close to shopping and beaches and vast nature trails and woods. IMMEADIATE OCCUPANCY !!

Key facts

• Woods
• Nature trails
• 0.52 acre lot

Tags

• NATURE TRAILS
• WOODS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central air
• Interior features: Open kitchen; Unfinished basement; Crawl attic; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Basement present (unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $475k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $460k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in East Shoreham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#724 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shoreham-Wading River Central School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #36 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Miller Avenue School (427 students, 0% FRL); Albert G Prodell Middle School (math 62% / reading 87%, grade A, #61 of 729 statewide, top 9%, 456 students, 0% FRL); Shoreham-Wading River High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 708 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $459,678 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $782,349
• List price: $649,900
• Delta: -16.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Royal Way	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,984 (-1%)	7mo	$810,000	$408	87
10 Jomar Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,000 (-0%)	11mo	$725,000	$363	84
14 Miller Ave	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,023 (+1%)	9mo	$745,000	$368	73
23 John St	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,191 (+9%)	4mo	$790,000	$361	72
8 Miller Ave	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,129 (+6%)	1mo	$780,000	$366	70
12 Jomar Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-10%)	2mo	$730,500	$406	68
34 John St	0.25mi	4/3.0	1,751 (-13%)	5mo	$532,500	$304	61
43 Fox Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,034 (+1%)	4mo	$560,000	$275	60
10 Valentine Rd	0.37mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (+10%)	5mo	$575,000	$261	55
3 Vee Jay Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,100 (+5%)	4mo	$615,000	$293	52
5 Dartmouth Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,137 (+6%)	4mo	$730,000	$342	46
7 Cornell Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-10%)	8mo	$645,000	$358	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-173,615
• Equity at exit: $96,902

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-238,356
• Equity at exit: $56,191

Cash invested: $181,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11786

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,408
• Tax from tax record: −$1,150 /mo · $13,804/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $-1,077

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,113

Max offer price $459,678

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,475
• Closing costs: $19,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Fox Ln Shoreham, NY	4.0	3.0	1720	$4,750	$2.76	10d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-28
   listed $649,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,804 · $1,150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,804 · $1,150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,405
• − Property taxes: −$13,804
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,560
• − Management: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$18,906
• Taxable loss: −$24,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,876
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shoreham-Wading River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626840
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $115,782
• Composite: 74.37/100
• National rank: #160
• State rank: #36 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Shoreham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #724
• US rank: #13829

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Shoreham, NY
• City population: 6,348
• Population (ZIP): 6,348

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.92%
• Current HPI: 330.5038
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $649,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,804 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.