7 Geneseo St

Oakley, CA 94561

$67,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,019/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $1,132/mo
• Annual: $13,586/yr
• Cap rate: 26.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.42%
• DSCR: 4.22
• 1% rule: 3.01%
• Cash to close: $18,760

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $67k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#608 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 3.3% in Oakley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: exterior paint — Peeling and fading
• Major: roof — Aged appearance