7 Geneseo St · Oakley, CA 94561

$67,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Built 1972 Fair condition $80/sqft · 24% below area Est $88k · 24% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Finding affordable living in Northern California is getting harder and harder. That's why this upcoming Oakley 55+ community home is such a rare opportunity enjoy a comfortable lifestyle, community amenities, and lower maintenance home at a price point that is becoming harder to find in the Bay Area. This is perfect for someone ready to enjoy retirement with less stress and more freedom.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1972
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Eagle City Mobile home
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $900 (monthly)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector; Fire alarm
• Utilities: Cable available; Individual electric meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park single wide; Biltmore make; Vinyl skirting; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Updated/remodeled
• Exterior features: Covered parking; Guest parking available; RV storage; Mobile home located in a park; Land lease in place

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas oven; Free standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Breakfast area; Dining/Family combo; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 3.3% in Oakley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#608 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,990 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.42%
• DSCR: 4.22
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,500
• List price: $67,000
• Delta: -24.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Cayuga St	0.06mi	2/1.5 (+1)	756 (-10%)	2mo	$86,625	$115	72
99 Ottawa St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (+1)	728 (-13%)	3mo	$88,500	$122	66
44 Cayuga	0.09mi	1/1.0	728 (-13%)	10mo	$80,000	$110	65
93 Ottawa St #93	0.05mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-14%)	21mo	$139,000	$193	51
69 Oneida St	0.10mi	2/2.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	21mo	$180,000	$188	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $62,672
• Equity at exit: $9,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.17×
• Total profit: $153,335
• Equity at exit: $5,793

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94561

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $1,132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $586

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	686	$1,787	$2.60	1d	1	0.29mi
69 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,660	$2.07	1d	9	0.32mi
4290 Mehaffey Way Oakley, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$2,295	$3.06	1d	1	0.86mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,632	$1.97	3d	1	1.35mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,135	$1.37	1d	9	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $67,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $67,000 Active 390-char remark
16. 2026-01-07
    status Active
17. 2026-01-07
    price $67,000
18. 2025-10-22
    price $74,000
19. 2025-08-29
    listed $77,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $13,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,195
• After-tax cash flow: $10,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior paint — Peeling and fading
• Major roof — Aged appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting and repainting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both roof replacement — Improves structural integrity and aesthetic appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling and fading	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Aged appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting and repainting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both roof replacement — Improves structural integrity and aesthetic appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oakley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #608
• US rank: #19421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakley, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 46,368
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,368
• Household income: $134,678
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 614.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.42%
• Current HPI: 301.9916
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $67,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $67,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $74,000 BAREIS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $77,000 BAREIS