1151 Coniferous Ave

Gonzalez, FL 32533

$180,990C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,912/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$949
• Tax + insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $260/mo
• Annual: $3,121/yr
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $50,677

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $181k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $181k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 513 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.