1151 Coniferous Ave · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$180,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Land · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 2,178 sqft lot $113/sqft · at area comps Est $190k · at est. ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 680443 - Built by NHC - Ready Now ~ The Coronado is a thoughtfully designed townhome that delivers comfort, flexibility, and modern living across two well-appointed levels. With approximately 1,600 square feet, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath plan offers the space you need in a layout that works for the way you live. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and a Spacious entryway that leads into an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area. The kitchen features a central island and a direct connection to the main living spaces-perfect for everyday living and effortless entertaining. A conveniently located powder room completes the main floor. Upstairs, a flexible loft provides additional living space ideal for a home office, media area, or playroom. The primary suite is designed for privacy and relaxation, featuring a well-appointed bathroom and a walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room round out the second floor. With smart design choices, generous storage, and versatile spaces throughout, the Coronado offers a fresh approach to townhome living. Known for providing the lowest price and price per square foot, National HomeCorp is here to help you get more home for your money!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Central island
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• FLEXIBLE LOFT
• WELL-APPOINTED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $181k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $181k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 513 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $175,560 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,990
• List price: $180,990
• Delta: -4.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,735
• Equity at exit: $26,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $10,357
• Equity at exit: $15,649

Cash invested: $50,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$949
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$226 /mo · $2,715/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,583

Max offer price $180,990

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,248
• Closing costs: $5,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-17
   price $180,990 1260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1260 chars)

   MLS# 680443 - Built by NHC - Ready Now ~ The Coronado is a thoughtfully designed townhome that delivers comfort, flexibility, and modern living across two well-appointed levels. With approximately 1,600 square feet, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath plan offers the space you need in a layout that works for the way you live. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and a Spacious entryway that leads into an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area. The kitchen features a central island and a direct connection to the main living spaces-perfect for everyday living and effortless entertaining. A conveniently located powder room completes the main floor. Upstairs, a flexible loft provides additional living space ideal for a home office, media area, or playroom. The primary suite is designed for privacy and relaxation, featuring a well-appointed bathroom and a walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room round out the second floor. With smart design choices, generous storage, and versatile spaces throughout, the Coronado offers a fresh approach to townhome living. Known for providing the lowest price and price per square foot, National HomeCorp is here to help you get more home for your money!

2. 2026-04-06
   listed $189,990 Active 1260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1260 chars)

   MLS# 680443 - Built by NHC - Ready Now ~ The Coronado is a thoughtfully designed townhome that delivers comfort, flexibility, and modern living across two well-appointed levels. With approximately 1,600 square feet, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath plan offers the space you need in a layout that works for the way you live. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and a Spacious entryway that leads into an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area. The kitchen features a central island and a direct connection to the main living spaces-perfect for everyday living and effortless entertaining. A conveniently located powder room completes the main floor. Upstairs, a flexible loft provides additional living space ideal for a home office, media area, or playroom. The primary suite is designed for privacy and relaxation, featuring a well-appointed bathroom and a walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room round out the second floor. With smart design choices, generous storage, and versatile spaces throughout, the Coronado offers a fresh approach to townhome living. Known for providing the lowest price and price per square foot, National HomeCorp is here to help you get more home for your money!

3. 2025-10-01
   historical
4. 2025-09-17
   price $234,594
5. 2025-09-10
   price $234,995
6. 2025-09-06
   price $239,496
7. 2025-09-04
   price $239,997
8. 2025-08-21
   price $239,990
9. 2025-07-26
   price $249,990
10. 2025-07-16
    price $269,990
11. 2025-07-10
    price $249,990
12. 2025-06-24
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,138
• − Property taxes: −$2,715
• − Insurance: −$905
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$5,265
• Taxable income: $255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$61
• After-tax cash flow: $3,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-27.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $180,990 PARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $189,990 PARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $234,594 PARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $234,995 PARMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $239,496 PARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $239,997 PARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $239,990 PARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $249,990 PARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $269,990 PARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $249,990 PARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $250,000 PARMLS