1407 Derrick Ave

Odessa, TX 79765

$305,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,514/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$431
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-534/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-534/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Jordan El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 854 students, 51% FRL); Wilson & Young Medal of Honor Middle (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 1,245 students, 56% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 440 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.