1407 Derrick Ave · Odessa, TX 79765

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,762 sqft lot $157/sqft · 7% below area Est $337k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME! This charming property boasts 3 spacious rooms and an open concept layout, perfect for both comfortable living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with a large soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and convenient laundry room access right through the master closet. Ideally located with easy access to Loop 338 N, this home is a perfect blend of convenience and comfort. Seller offering $5K in concessions!!

Key facts

• 7,762 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2010
• Exterior features: Landscaped yard; Paved road access; Wood fencing; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Blinds; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Jordan El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 854 students, 51% FRL); Wilson & Young Medal of Honor Middle (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 1,245 students, 56% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 433 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,394 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,311
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -6.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8914 Ratliff Ridge Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-12%)	22mo	$289,000	$164	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-63,576
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-87,448
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,648/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,642

Max offer price $297,134

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $-12	+0% $-101	+5% $-190	+10% $-279
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-200	+0% $-101	+5% $-2	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $-21	base $-101	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1320 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,800	$1.93	46d	1	0.08mi
1218 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	23d	1	0.17mi
1508 E 89th St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2056	$2,700	$1.31	23d	1	0.19mi
1210 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,600	$1.64	46d	1	0.20mi
1028 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,145	$1.47	15d	1	0.23mi
1023 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,500	$1.42	15d	1	0.23mi
1808 Big Easy St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.5	2348	$2,950	$1.26	23d	1	0.26mi
9031 Antelope Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1923	$2,500	$1.30	46d	1	0.33mi
1115 Canal St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,400	$1.31	46d	1	0.33mi
1102 Canal St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2095	$2,600	$1.24	23d	1	0.39mi
88 Maverick Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,200	$1.57	46d	1	0.42mi
9017 Pepper Grass Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,500	$1.41	46d	1	0.46mi
1226 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,250	$1.47	15d	1	0.47mi
1025 Pine Leaf Pl Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	46d	1	0.47mi
915 Canal St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2080	$3,100	$1.49	23d	1	0.52mi
1109 Wagon Way Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,400	$1.58	15d	1	0.66mi
912 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,400	$1.35	46d	1	0.71mi
908 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,500	$1.69	46d	1	0.72mi
1306 E 94th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,350	$1.58	23d	1	0.74mi
800 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$2,550	$1.27	46d	1	0.79mi
8732 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	46d	1	0.90mi
900 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,300	$1.40	46d	1	0.91mi
808 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,350	$1.59	46d	1	0.93mi
819 E 97th Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,350	$1.44	15d	1	0.99mi
713 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	46d	1	1.03mi
9219 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	2118	$2,800	$1.32	46d	1	1.17mi
618 Juniper Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,700	$1.68	15d	1	1.21mi
216 E 91st St Odessa, TX	3.0	3.0	1602	$2,500	$1.56	15d	1	1.25mi
9914 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$3,200	$1.55	46d	1	1.28mi
8610 Lamar Ave Unit NA Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	15d	1	1.29mi
320 Panhandle Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	46d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $315,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 495-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $315,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $315,000 Active 404-char remark
19. 2026-05-04
    listed $315,000 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    WELCOME HOME! This charming property boasts 3 spacious rooms and an open concept layout, perfect for both comfortable living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with a large soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and convenient laundry room access right through the master closet. Ideally located with easy access to Loop 338 N, this home is a perfect blend of convenience and comfort. Seller offering $5K in concessions!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,648 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,116/yr (+$176/mo · 58.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$3,648
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,413
• − Management: −$2,413
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,606
• After-tax cash flow: $392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and cleaning of the gutters.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $315,000 ODMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $315,000 PBBOR

Property tax history

+67.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,648 · -21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.