401 Minga Store Rd

Oak Grove, TN 37663

$204,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,282 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,724/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $147/mo
• Annual: $1,764/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.07%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $57,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#318 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Holston Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #319 of 952 statewide, top 37%, 635 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan East Middle School (math 8% / reading 11%, grade F, #260 of 333 statewide, top 79%, 573 students, 0% FRL); West Ridge High School (1,683 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $205k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Oak Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.