401 Minga Store Rd · Oak Grove, TN 37663

$204,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,282 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1968 0.34 ac lot $160/sqft · 14% below area Est $301k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell now!! This inviting 3 bedroom home offers comfort, space, and an unbeatable location just a short walk from the beautiful Boone Lake. Whether you're seeking peaceful everyday living or a weekend retreat, this property delivers the perfect blend of convenience and tranquility. Sitting on a generous half-acre lot, the home features a welcoming covered porch ideal for morning coffee, evening relaxation, or hosting friends outdoors. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with 1 full bath and an additional half bath, plus an eat-in kitchen, walk-in closets, and a dedicated laundry room for everyday ease. The partially finished basement offers flexible space for a den, hobby room,

Key facts

• Covered porch
• In-law suite
• Half-acre lot

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• HALF-ACRE LOT
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• IN-LAW SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: A 1; Lot size: 0.34 acres (irregular)

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Residential property; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built-in below-grade finished area (336 sq ft) -- informational
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Side porch; Shed(s); Sloped topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Basement (concrete)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Oak Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#318 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Holston Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #319 of 952 statewide, top 37%, 635 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan East Middle School (math 8% / reading 11%, grade F, #260 of 333 statewide, top 79%, 573 students, 0% FRL); West Ridge High School (1,683 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $205k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $172,398 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.07%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,268
• List price: $204,900
• Delta: -31.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,940
• Equity at exit: $30,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,189
• Equity at exit: $17,716

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37663

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $661/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,538

Max offer price $204,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
392 Minga Rd Kingsport, TN	3.0	1.0	1056	$2,250	$2.13	43d	1	0.82mi
516 Lakeside Dock Dr #6 Kingsport, TN	2.0	1.5	1120	$2,000	$1.79	13d	1	1.24mi
148 Gray Station Rd #202 Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,225	$1.02	20d	1	1.30mi
148 Gray Station Rd Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,185	$0.99	13d	2	1.33mi
30 Hiddenbrook Ln Gray, TN	3.0	2.5	1630	$1,700	$1.04	20d	1	1.35mi
194 Gray Station Rd #194 Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,500	$1.23	20d	1	1.45mi
200 Gray Station Rd Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.5	1224	$1,200	$0.98	20d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $204,900 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $204,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $204,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $219,900 Active 967-char remark
15. 2025-10-21
    price $205,000
16. 2025-09-09
    price $219,000
17. 2025-08-11
    listed $229,000 Active
18. 2025-05-06
    price $249,000
19. 2023-09-14
    soldstatus $135,000
20. 2023-09-07
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed
21. 2023-08-31
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2023-08-30
    status Active
23. 2023-08-01
    historical
24. 2023-07-30
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2023-07-27
    price $169,900
26. 2023-07-14
    price $184,000
27. 2023-06-22
    price $189,000
28. 2023-06-16
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,455 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$794/yr (+$66/mo · 120.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$661
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable loss: −$1,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$419
• After-tax cash flow: $2,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County
• NCES district ID: 4703990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,263
• Composite: 17.66/100
• National rank: #9030
• State rank: #109 of 139 in TN

Livability — Oak Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #21531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 14,230
• Household income: $76,007
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.38%
• Current HPI: 255.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+5.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $204,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $219,900 TVRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $205,000 GSMAR
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $219,000 GSMAR
• 2025-08-11 Listed $229,000 GSMAR
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $249,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-07 Sold (MLS) $135,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-08-31 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2023-08-30 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2023-08-01 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2023-07-30 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2023-07-27 Price Changed $169,900 TVRMLS
• 2023-07-14 Price Changed $184,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-06-22 Price Changed $189,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-06-16 Listed $195,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $661 · +28.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.