165 Chestnut Ridge Dr SE

Ferrum, VA 24079

$129,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,009/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-685/yr
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-685/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (22.3% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $101k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#331 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin County Public School District (town): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #24 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Ferrum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.