165 Chestnut Ridge Dr SE · Ferrum, VA 24079

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1991 0.34 ac lot $120/sqft · 34% below area Est $202k · 36% under $19/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live like you're on vacation every day in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath one level home located in the desirable Park Ridge Subdivision. This gated community offers exceptional amenities, including a stocked pond, community pool, clubhouse, and over 100 acres of common land to explore. Bring your ATVs! Just minutes from the Blue Ridge Parkway and within 30 minutes of downtown Floyd, this home provides the perfect blend of privacy, recreation, and convenience. Inside, you'll find spacious rooms throughout, and outside, a back deck overlooking the yard—ideal for summertime cookouts and relaxing in the fresh mountain air. A wonderful opportunity for full-time living or a peaceful getaway in a beautiful setting. Call for more information and to schedule a private showing today!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• STOCKED POND
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $230

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating (forced-air electric)
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1991
• Construction: Year built: 1991
• Exterior features: Waterfront lot; Lot is approximately 0.34 acres; Common pool; Trail access

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances listed as 'Other - See Remarks'
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air electric heating
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Appliances: other (see remarks); Carpet and vinyl flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Crawl space (utility access)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-685/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Ferrum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#331 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin County Public School District (town): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #24 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,941 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,769
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -35.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 Ridge Oak Dr SE	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (0%)	20mo	$180,000	$167	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $67,098
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $200,431
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24079

• Home prices YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $405/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,082

Max offer price $119,811

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-20	+0% $-57	+5% $-94	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-97	+0% $-57	+5% $-17	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-24	base $-57	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $129,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM

   Show marketing remark (782 chars)

   Live like you're on vacation every day in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath one level home located in the desirable Park Ridge Subdivision. This gated community offers exceptional amenities, including a stocked pond, community pool, clubhouse, and over 100 acres of common land to explore. Bring your ATVs! Just minutes from the Blue Ridge Parkway and within 30 minutes of downtown Floyd, this home provides the perfect blend of privacy, recreation, and convenience. Inside, you'll find spacious rooms throughout, and outside, a back deck overlooking the yard—ideal for summertime cookouts and relaxing in the fresh mountain air. A wonderful opportunity for full-time living or a peaceful getaway in a beautiful setting. Call for more information and to schedule a private showing today!

7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $139,900 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Live like you’re on vacation every day in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath one level home located in the desirable Park Ridge Subdivision. This gated community offers exceptional amenities, including a stocked pond, community pool, clubhouse, and over 100 acres of common land to explore. Bring your ATVs! Just minutes from the Blue Ridge Parkway and within 30 minutes of downtown Floyd, this home provides the perfect blend of privacy, recreation, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find spacious rooms throughout, and outside, a back deck overlooking the yard—ideal for summertime cookouts and relaxing in the fresh mountain air. A wonderful opportunity for full-time living or a peaceful getaway in a beautiful setting. Call for more information and to schedule a private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $405 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$660/yr (+$55/mo · 163.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 2 d/yr ≥97°F today · 7 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$405
• − Insurance: −$1,447
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$969
• − Management: −$969
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$711
• After-tax cash flow: $25/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101440
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,093
• Composite: 59.5/100
• National rank: #921
• State rank: #24 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ferrum

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #12612

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,644

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,242 people
• By 2030: 55,742 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 53,669 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 50,291 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 42,395 · -24.6%
• By 2100: 32,981 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Subsaharan African 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.9% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -22.8pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+42.1 2016: R+42.2 2012: R+28.6 2008: R+22.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.03%
• Current HPI: 231.5726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $129,900 SWVAR
• 2026-06-14 Listed $129,900 MLSRV
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $129,900 NRVMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $139,900 NRVMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $405 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.