1800 Vista Cove Rd

St. Augustine, FL 32084

$254,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,342/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax + insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$578
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-361/mo
• Annual: $-4,338/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $71,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $254k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (7.8% below list).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Crookshank Elementary School (math 64% / reading 62%, grade B, #582 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 704 students, 64% FRL); Sebastian Middle School (math 59% / reading 59%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 654 students, 42% FRL); St. Augustine High School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 1,784 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 20% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 636 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $254k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?