4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,086 sqft ·
Built 2023
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 39 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,924/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,573
Tax + insurance
−$906
HOA
−$104
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$614
Net cashflow
$-273/mo
Annual
$-3,279/yr
Cap rate
5.20%
Cash-on-cash
-3.90%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$83,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (16.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (2.5% below list).
It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $252k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29