19151 Symms Rd

Caldwell, ID 83607

$84,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$700
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $460/mo
• Annual: $5,514/yr
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.20%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 2.51%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Marsing Joint District (rural): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #65 of 92 in ID (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marsing Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #234 of 357 statewide, top 69%, 412 students, 55% FRL); Marsing Middle School (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #78 of 109 statewide, top 72%, 213 students, 60% FRL); Marsing High School (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #8 of 169 statewide, top 4%, 229 students, 43% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.0% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.