5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,117 sqft ·
Built 1977
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 52 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,253/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,609
Tax + insurance
−$452
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$473
Net cashflow
$-281/mo
Annual
$-3,371/yr
Cap rate
5.19%
Cash-on-cash
-3.92%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$85,932
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (16.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (26.6% below list).
It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $225k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
Hallsville ISD (town): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #490 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SG52VFEJSAVCNE
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29