5250 N Us Highway 89 #147

Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$127,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,280/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $924/mo
• Annual: $11,082/yr
• Cap rate: 15.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.16%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $35,560

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $127k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $924 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Weitzel'S Puente De Hozho Bilingual Magnet School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 438 students, 42% FRL); Sinagua Middle School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #147 of 218 statewide, top 69%, 1,016 students, 40% FRL); Coconino High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 1,528 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.