2900 S Canyon Rd #110

Ellensburg, WA 98926

$89,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,956/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $582/mo
• Annual: $6,979/yr
• Cap rate: 19.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.27%
• DSCR: 3.15
• 1% rule: 2.19%
• Cash to close: $25,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#64 in WA, #1,157 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D-.
• Ellensburg School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #148 of 291 in WA (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Valley View Elementary School (395 students, 33% FRL); Morgan Middle School (778 students, 50% FRL); Ellensburg High School (938 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 312 active listings in the ZIP; 433 units permitted in Kittitas County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kittitas County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 2.7% in Ellensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.