None bd · None ba ·
12,222 sqft ·
Built 1907
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$18,256/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$11,799
Tax + insurance
−$3,750
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,834
Net cashflow
$-1,127/mo
Annual
$-13,524/yr
Cap rate
5.69%
Cash-on-cash
-2.15%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$630,000
Investor read
This is a 3 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $2.25M. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-376/mo.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.09M (7.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.83M (18.9% below list).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.83M (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $160k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $145k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.9%/yr); 60 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$257k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $18,256/mo this rent would consume 251% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 2027% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-SH4ABJF99WE3E8
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29