1405 S Trimble Rd

Stockton, MO 65785

$149,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,266/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $103/mo
• Annual: $1,232/yr
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.95%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (15.0% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#456 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.5% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.