1405 S Trimble Rd · Stockton, MO 65785

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1997 0.31 ac lot $90/sqft · 35% below area Est $228k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see your next lake home! This well kept home sits on 4 city lots and is just down the road from the lake. The 1st boat ramp and beach is to the east and Orleans Trail is to the west. Take your pick! This home has a beautifully landscaped yard with a detached garage, shed, storm shelter and a small detached guest space. You will feel like you are in secluded woods while living in town

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.5% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#456 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,634 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.95%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,265
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -34.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1308 Lakeview Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+5%)	8mo	$249,000	$143	77
310 W Vern Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-5%)	11mo	$279,900	$179	60
910 S Ward St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-2%)	21mo	$205,900	$127	56
1315 Lakeview Cir	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,852 (+12%)	23mo	$319,900	$173	52
908 S Ward St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-5%)	22mo	$199,500	$127	48
502 S Cherry St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,849 (+12%)	12mo	$254,900	$138	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $87,627
• Equity at exit: $134,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $252,782
• Equity at exit: $289,474

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65785

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-24
   listed $149,000 Active
2. 2026-01-30
   price $160,000
3. 2026-01-14
   listed $180,000 Active
4. 2017-02-08
   soldstatus
5. 2017-02-07
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   Come see your next lake home! This well kept home sits on 4 city lots and is just down the road from the lake. The 1st boat ramp and beach is to the east and Orleans Trail is to the west. Take your pick! This home has a beautifully landscaped yard with a detached garage, shed, storm shelter and a small detached guest space. You will feel like you are in secluded woods while living in town

6. 2016-09-15
   listed $59,000

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   Come see your next lake home! This well kept home sits on 4 city lots and is just down the road from the lake. The 1st boat ramp and beach is to the east and Orleans Trail is to the west. Take your pick! This home has a beautifully landscaped yard with a detached garage, shed, storm shelter and a small detached guest space. You will feel like you are in secluded woods while living in town

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$794/yr (+$66/mo · 121.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$315
• After-tax cash flow: $1,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929520
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,609
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3989
• State rank: #77 of 324 in MO

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #18379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, MO
• Population (ZIP): 5,538

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 293.8984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+152.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $149,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $160,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-14 Listed $180,000 SOMO
• 2017-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-02-07 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2016-09-15 Listed $59,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.