36595 County Rd 48

Southold, NY 11958

$799,000A

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,592/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$870
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,274
• Net cashflow: $7,258/mo
• Annual: $87,097/yr
• Cap rate: 17.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.93%
• DSCR: 2.73
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $799k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($87k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $799k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $305k; list at $799k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 6.3% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $15,592/mo this rent would consume 291% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 47% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — The interior walls and furniture need a fresh coat of paint.
• Minor: Furniture — The furniture in the living room and dining room is outdated and could be replaced with more modern pieces.