36595 County Rd 48 · Southold, NY 11958

$799,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 1968 Good condition 0.92 ac lot $444/sqft · 43% below area Est $1.395M · 43% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your opportunity to own a piece of the North Fork lifestyle. Situated on over half an acre in the heart of Peconic, this expanded ranch offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and potential just minutes from everything that makes the North Fork one of Long Island’s most sought-after destinations. This well-maintained home features a functional single-level layout with an updated configuration, including an additional bedroom and multiple bathrooms, providing more space than typical homes in this price range. The layout is ideal for both full-time living and weekend retreats, offering flexibility, ease, and convenience.

Key facts

• Ranch home
• New kitchen
• Investment property

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• NEW KITCHEN
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $799k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($122k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $799k).
• Recommended offer: $775k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 6.6% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($775k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $305k; list at $799k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $775,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.52%
• DSCR: 3.43
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,394,565
• List price: $799,000
• Delta: -42.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3080 Henrys Ln	1.10mi	4/3.0	1,856 (+3%)	22mo	$810,000	$436	41
585 Peconic Ln	0.84mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-6%)	10mo	$650,000	$382	39
1720 Carroll Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-12%)	16mo	$650,000	$413	35
950 Main Bayview Rd	1.03mi	4/2.0	1,629 (-10%)	13mo	$740,000	$454	34
25 Miami Ave	0.87mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+6%)	19mo	$949,000	$499	31
344 Terry Ct	0.92mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-6%)	24mo	$1,175,000	$691	27
8095 Soundview Ave	0.83mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+11%)	13mo	$1,250,000	$625	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $681,892
• Equity at exit: $293,590

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.16×
• Total profit: $1,602,051
• Equity at exit: $406,797

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $3,100,000 ($1938/sqft)
• Median days on market: 26 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -60.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11958

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,271 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$537 /mo · $6,442/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,047
• Net cashflow: $10,164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,405

Max offer price $799,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,617	-5% $10,390	+0% $10,164	+5% $9,938	+10% $9,712
Rent	-10% $8,642	-5% $9,403	+0% $10,164	+5% $10,925	+10% $11,687
Rate	-1.0pp $10,567	-0.5pp $10,368	base $10,164	+0.5pp $9,957	+1.0pp $9,747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1225 Leeton Dr Southold, NY	4.0	2.0	1900	$30,000	$15.79	1d	1	1.03mi
1100 Huntington Blvd Peconic, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$12,000	$7.50	139d	1	1.04mi
2380 S Harbor Rd Southold, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$15,500	$10.33	1d	1	1.14mi
65 Lake Dr Southold, NY	4.0	2.0	1500	$4,500	$3.00	1d	1	1.15mi
270 N Sea Dr Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	1800	$22,500	$12.50	139d	1	1.24mi
485 Pine Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$7,500	$3.75	1d	1	1.30mi
4525 S Harbor Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1693	$14,000	$8.27	1d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayParking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: PSEG electricCesspool sewerCable connectedElectricity connectedUnderground utilitiesWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceOne levelUpdated/remodeled
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding constructionConcrete perimeter foundationCrawl atticBasement for storage (unfinished)
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Flooring: Tile flooringWood flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingDuctless cooling
• Interior features: Marble countersDeck

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $799,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $799,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $799,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $799,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $799,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $799,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $799,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $799,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $799,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $799,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $799,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $799,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $799,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $799,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $799,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $799,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $799,000 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $799,000 Active 21 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $799,000 Active 20 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $799,000 Active 19 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $799,000 Active 18 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $799,000 Active 17 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $799,000 Active 16 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $799,000 Active 15 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $799,000 Active 14 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $799,000 Active 13 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $799,000 Active 12 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $799,000 Active 11 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $799,000 Active 10 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $799,000 Active 9 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $799,000 Active 8 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $799,000 Active 7 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $799,000 Active 6 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $799,000 Active 5 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $799,000 Active 4 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $799,000 Active 3 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $799,000 Active 2 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $799,000 Active 1 DOM
40. 2026-07-25
    days on market $899,999 Active 111 DOM
41. 2026-07-24
    days on market $899,999 Active 110 DOM
42. 2026-07-23
    days on market $899,999 Active 109 DOM
43. 2026-07-22
    days on market $899,999 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-07-21
    days on market $899,999 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-07-20
    days on market $899,999 Active 106 DOM
46. 2026-07-18
    days on market $899,999 Active 104 DOM
47. 2026-07-16
    days on market $899,999 Active 102 DOM
48. 2026-07-15
    days on market $899,999 Active 101 DOM
49. 2026-07-14
    days on market $899,999 Active 100 DOM
50. 2026-07-13
    days on market $899,999 Active 99 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,442 · $537/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,973 · $831/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,530/yr (+$294/mo · 54.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $231,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$6,442
• − Insurance: −$3,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,500
• − Management: −$18,500
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable income: $115,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27,795
• After-tax cash flow: $94,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,000–$27,000 screening

This well-maintained single-family home with a good condition score and a cosmetic rehab level is ready for a fresh coat of paint and updated furniture to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — The interior walls and furniture need a fresh coat of paint.
• Minor Furniture — The furniture in the living room and dining room is outdated and could be replaced with more modern pieces.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the interior walls and furniture — Fresh paint and updated furniture will make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Replace outdated furniture — Modern furniture will make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southold Elementary School D NY #1,085/2,108 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 High Southold Junior-Senior High School D+ NY #946/1,100 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 6,507
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 864
• Household income: $64,263
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

---

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 28% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Current HPI: 219.0019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayParking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: PSEG electricCesspool sewerCable connectedElectricity connectedUnderground utilitiesWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceOne levelUpdated/remodeled
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding constructionConcrete perimeter foundationCrawl atticBasement for storage (unfinished)
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Flooring: Tile flooringWood flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingDuctless cooling
• Interior features: Marble countersDeck

Price history

+547.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-01 Listed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-07-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $899,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $123,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,442 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.