36595 County Road 48 · Southold, NY 11958

$950,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 1970 0.54 ac lot $633/sqft · 20% below area Est $1188k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your opportunity to own a piece of the North Fork lifestyle. Situated on over half an acre in the heart of Peconic, this expanded ranch offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and potential just minutes from everything that makes the North Fork one of Long Island’s most sought-after destinations. This well-maintained home features a functional single-level layout with an updated configuration, including an additional bedroom and multiple bathrooms, providing more space than typical homes in this price range. The layout is ideal for both full-time living and weekend retreats, offering flexibility, ease, and convenience. Set on a generous lot, the property offers ample outdoor space with room to create your own private oasis—whether that’s a pool, outdoor entertaining area, or future expansion. The possibilities here are endless. Located along County Road 48, you’ll enjoy easy access across the entire North Fork while being just minutes from renowned wineries, farm stands, beaches along the Long Island Sound, and the vibrant village of Greenport, known for its waterfront dining, shopping, and ferry access. With low annual taxes and strong upside potential, this property presents an exceptional opportunity for end-users, second-home buyers, or investors looking to secure a foothold in one of the region’s fastest-growing markets. Whether you’re looking to move right in, customize, or invest, this is your gateway to North Fork living.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($57k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $950k).
• Recommended offer: $893k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($893k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $305k; list at $950k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $893,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.40%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,188,214
• List price: $950,000
• Delta: -20.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1720 Carroll Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+5%)	12mo	$650,000	$413	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $342,978
• Equity at exit: $349,074

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $894,547
• Equity at exit: $483,676

Cash invested: $266,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11958

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax from tax record: −$525 /mo · $6,298/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,830
• Net cashflow: $4,744

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,472

Max offer price $950,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,500
• Closing costs: $28,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6710 Soundview Ave Southold, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$4,900	$2.45	43d	1	0.59mi
155 Sound Ave Unit 1521494P Mattituck, NY	3.0	2.0	1194	$8,626	$7.22	43d	1	1.00mi
1100 Huntington Blvd Peconic, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$12,000	$7.50	43d	1	1.04mi
270 N Sea Dr Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	1800	$22,500	$12.50	43d	1	1.24mi
485 Pine Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$12,000	$6.00	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $950,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $950,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $950,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $950,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $950,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $950,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $950,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $950,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $950,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $950,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $950,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $950,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $950,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $950,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $950,000 Active 1509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1509 chars)

    Welcome to your opportunity to own a piece of the North Fork lifestyle. Situated on over half an acre in the heart of Peconic, this expanded ranch offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and potential just minutes from everything that makes the North Fork one of Long Island’s most sought-after destinations. This well-maintained home features a functional single-level layout with an updated configuration, including an additional bedroom and multiple bathrooms, providing more space than typical homes in this price range. The layout is ideal for both full-time living and weekend retreats, offering flexibility, ease, and convenience. Set on a generous lot, the property offers ample outdoor space with room to create your own private oasis—whether that’s a pool, outdoor entertaining area, or future expansion. The possibilities here are endless. Located along County Road 48, you’ll enjoy easy access across the entire North Fork while being just minutes from renowned wineries, farm stands, beaches along the Long Island Sound, and the vibrant village of Greenport, known for its waterfront dining, shopping, and ferry access. With low annual taxes and strong upside potential, this property presents an exceptional opportunity for end-users, second-home buyers, or investors looking to secure a foothold in one of the region’s fastest-growing markets. Whether you’re looking to move right in, customize, or invest, this is your gateway to North Fork living.

16. 2026-03-28
    historical $950,000 1509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1509 chars)

    Welcome to your opportunity to own a piece of the North Fork lifestyle. Situated on over half an acre in the heart of Peconic, this expanded ranch offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and potential just minutes from everything that makes the North Fork one of Long Island’s most sought-after destinations. This well-maintained home features a functional single-level layout with an updated configuration, including an additional bedroom and multiple bathrooms, providing more space than typical homes in this price range. The layout is ideal for both full-time living and weekend retreats, offering flexibility, ease, and convenience. Set on a generous lot, the property offers ample outdoor space with room to create your own private oasis—whether that’s a pool, outdoor entertaining area, or future expansion. The possibilities here are endless. Located along County Road 48, you’ll enjoy easy access across the entire North Fork while being just minutes from renowned wineries, farm stands, beaches along the Long Island Sound, and the vibrant village of Greenport, known for its waterfront dining, shopping, and ferry access. With low annual taxes and strong upside potential, this property presents an exceptional opportunity for end-users, second-home buyers, or investors looking to secure a foothold in one of the region’s fastest-growing markets. Whether you’re looking to move right in, customize, or invest, this is your gateway to North Fork living.

17. 2013-11-14
    soldstatus $305,000
18. 1999-06-09
    soldstatus $123,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,298 · $525/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,177 · $931/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,878/yr (+$407/mo · 77.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $161,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,215
• − Property taxes: −$6,298
• − Insurance: −$4,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,938
• − Management: −$12,938
• − Depreciation: −$27,636
• Taxable income: $43,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,547
• After-tax cash flow: $46,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 864

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 28% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Current HPI: 219.0019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+669.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Coming Soon $950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $123,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,298 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.