9410 Pembrook Pl

Panama City, FL 32404

$278,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,889/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax + insurance: −$253
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-219/mo
• Annual: $-2,622/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $77,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $278k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.