9410 Pembrook Pl · Panama City, FL 32404

$278,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1989 0.46 ac lot $210/sqft · at area comps Est $322k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready, fully renovated, and sitting on nearly half an acre -- this all-brick ranch offers space, updates, and flexibility that are hard to find. Even better, the home has not been occupied since the renovation was completed. Inside, you'll find a bright interior with fresh paint and updated finishes throughout. The beautifully renovated kitchen is the center of the home and features custom cabinetry, granite countertops, and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space for everyday living and entertaining. A spacious bonus room with its own half bath expands the heated and cooled living space, making it perfect for a second living area, home office, game room, or guest space. Outside, the property offers plenty of yard space and a detached two-car garage/workshop, ideal for storing tools, outdoor equipment, or all the toys. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a new roof, new windows, new HVAC system, new water heater, updated flooring in the bonus room, and new French doors. With so many improvements already completed, the home offers the comfort of modern upgrades paired with the durability of classic all-brick construction. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from the new Publix on Hwy 231! Renovated homes with land, a workshop, and bonus living space are hard to find -- schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Fully renovated
• Spacious bonus room

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• SPACIOUS BONUS ROOM
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $278k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,927 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,772
• List price: $278,000
• Delta: -13.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-62,574
• Equity at exit: $41,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-86,679
• Equity at exit: $24,036

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $239,399

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-140	+0% $-219	+5% $-297	+10% $-376
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-293	+0% $-219	+5% $-144	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-148	base $-219	+0.5pp $-291	+1.0pp $-364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $278,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $278,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $278,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,500 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $278,500 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,500 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $278,500 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $278,500 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-09
    price $278,500 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 80 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 79 DOM
20. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,000 Active 78 DOM
21. 2026-05-11
    price $279,000 1375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1375 chars)

    Move-in ready, fully renovated, and sitting on nearly half an acre -- this all-brick ranch offers space, updates, and flexibility that are hard to find. Even better, the home has not been occupied since the renovation was completed. Inside, you'll find a bright interior with fresh paint and updated finishes throughout. The beautifully renovated kitchen is the center of the home and features custom cabinetry, granite countertops, and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space for everyday living and entertaining. A spacious bonus room with its own half bath expands the heated and cooled living space, making it perfect for a second living area, home office, game room, or guest space. Outside, the property offers plenty of yard space and a detached two-car garage/workshop, ideal for storing tools, outdoor equipment, or all the toys. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a new roof, new windows, new HVAC system, new water heater, updated flooring in the bonus room, and new French doors. With so many improvements already completed, the home offers the comfort of modern upgrades paired with the durability of classic all-brick construction. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from the new Publix on Hwy 231! Renovated homes with land, a workshop, and bonus living space are hard to find -- schedule your showing today.

22. 2026-04-15
    price $289,000 1375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1375 chars)

    Move-in ready, fully renovated, and sitting on nearly half an acre -- this all-brick ranch offers space, updates, and flexibility that are hard to find. Even better, the home has not been occupied since the renovation was completed. Inside, you'll find a bright interior with fresh paint and updated finishes throughout. The beautifully renovated kitchen is the center of the home and features custom cabinetry, granite countertops, and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space for everyday living and entertaining. A spacious bonus room with its own half bath expands the heated and cooled living space, making it perfect for a second living area, home office, game room, or guest space. Outside, the property offers plenty of yard space and a detached two-car garage/workshop, ideal for storing tools, outdoor equipment, or all the toys. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a new roof, new windows, new HVAC system, new water heater, updated flooring in the bonus room, and new French doors. With so many improvements already completed, the home offers the comfort of modern upgrades paired with the durability of classic all-brick construction. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from the new Publix on Hwy 231! Renovated homes with land, a workshop, and bonus living space are hard to find -- schedule your showing today.

23. 2026-03-26
    price $299,000 1375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1375 chars)

    Move-in ready, fully renovated, and sitting on nearly half an acre -- this all-brick ranch offers space, updates, and flexibility that are hard to find. Even better, the home has not been occupied since the renovation was completed. Inside, you'll find a bright interior with fresh paint and updated finishes throughout. The beautifully renovated kitchen is the center of the home and features custom cabinetry, granite countertops, and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space for everyday living and entertaining. A spacious bonus room with its own half bath expands the heated and cooled living space, making it perfect for a second living area, home office, game room, or guest space. Outside, the property offers plenty of yard space and a detached two-car garage/workshop, ideal for storing tools, outdoor equipment, or all the toys. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a new roof, new windows, new HVAC system, new water heater, updated flooring in the bonus room, and new French doors. With so many improvements already completed, the home offers the comfort of modern upgrades paired with the durability of classic all-brick construction. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from the new Publix on Hwy 231! Renovated homes with land, a workshop, and bonus living space are hard to find -- schedule your showing today.

24. 2026-03-11
    listed $320,000 Active 1375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1375 chars)

    Move-in ready, fully renovated, and sitting on nearly half an acre -- this all-brick ranch offers space, updates, and flexibility that are hard to find. Even better, the home has not been occupied since the renovation was completed. Inside, you'll find a bright interior with fresh paint and updated finishes throughout. The beautifully renovated kitchen is the center of the home and features custom cabinetry, granite countertops, and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and functional space for everyday living and entertaining. A spacious bonus room with its own half bath expands the heated and cooled living space, making it perfect for a second living area, home office, game room, or guest space. Outside, the property offers plenty of yard space and a detached two-car garage/workshop, ideal for storing tools, outdoor equipment, or all the toys. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a new roof, new windows, new HVAC system, new water heater, updated flooring in the bonus room, and new French doors. With so many improvements already completed, the home offers the comfort of modern upgrades paired with the durability of classic all-brick construction. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from the new Publix on Hwy 231! Renovated homes with land, a workshop, and bonus living space are hard to find -- schedule your showing today.

25. 2025-12-31
    historical
26. 2025-08-18
    price $319,000
27. 2025-08-18
    price $319,000
28. 2025-07-22
    price $329,000
29. 2025-07-22
    price $329,000
30. 2025-07-08
    listed $339,000 Active
31. 2025-06-24
    listed $339,000 Active
32. 2025-03-25
    soldstatus $150,000
33. 2025-03-21
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed
34. 2025-03-06
    status Pending
35. 2025-01-28
    price $220,000
36. 2024-11-07
    listed $239,000 Active
37. 2021-12-09
    historical
38. 2013-12-23
    soldstatus $65,000
39. 2013-12-20
    soldstatus $65,000
40. 2013-08-15
    listed $54,900
41. 2010-02-12
    listed $119,900
42. 1995-04-01
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,648 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,307 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$659/yr (+$55/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$7,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,837
• After-tax cash flow: $-785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+426.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $279,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $289,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $299,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $320,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $319,000 ECAR
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $319,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $329,000 ECAR
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $329,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $339,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $339,000 ECAR
• 2025-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-21 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $220,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed $239,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2013-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-20 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CPARMLS
• 2013-08-15 Listed $54,900 CPARMLS
• 2010-02-12 Listed $119,900 CPARMLS
• 1995-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,648 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.