1838 Goose Lake Cir #28

North Liberty, IA 52317

$227,500D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,569 sqft · Built 2008 · Condo · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,862/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,193
• Tax + insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$90
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-191/mo
• Annual: $-2,293/yr
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $63,700

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $228k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#18 in IA, #596 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clear Creek Amana Community School District (rural): math 73% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #72 of 289 in IA (top 25%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Bend Elementary (math 77% / reading 57%, grade B+, #273 of 616 statewide, top 51%, 393 students, 22% FRL); Clear Creek Amana Middle School (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #59 of 246 statewide, top 26%, 640 students, 29% FRL); Clear Creek Amana High School (math 71% / reading 85%, grade A-, #53 of 336 statewide, top 16%, 728 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 714 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (158 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in North Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?