1838 Goose Lake Cir #28 · North Liberty, IA 52317

$227,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,569 sqft · Condo · 77 Days on market

Built 2008 $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Bathrooms 1,569 Living Space Charming 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home with 1,569 sq ft of living space. Inside you’ll find a cozy fireplace, spacious kitchen with large pantry, and a sliding door that brings in natural light and outdoor views. No neighbors directly behind — enjoy open fields for a peaceful country feel while still being minutes from trails, shopping, dining, and the Family Entertainment Center. Located in a top-rated school district with quick access to I-380.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Large pantry
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY
• SLIDING DOOR
• TOP-RATED SCHOOL DISTRICT
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-380

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in North Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#18 in IA, #596 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clear Creek Amana Community School District (rural): math 73% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #72 of 289 in IA (top 25%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 714 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (158 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $186,217 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,893
• Equity at exit: $33,921

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-9,167
• Equity at exit: $19,670

Cash invested: $63,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52317

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,193
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,412/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,104

Max offer price $199,849

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-112	+0% $-191	+5% $-270	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-338	-5% $-265	+0% $-191	+5% $-118	+10% $-44
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-133	base $-191	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,875
• Closing costs: $6,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
560 Madison Ave North Liberty, IA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,700	$1.69	14d	2	0.58mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-12-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-05
   price $227,500
3. 2025-09-29
   listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,744
• − Property taxes: −$3,412
• − Insurance: −$1,138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$6,618
• Taxable loss: −$6,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $-800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek Amana Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1907590
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,915
• Composite: 63.92/100
• National rank: #586
• State rank: #72 of 289 in IA

Livability — North Liberty

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #596

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Liberty, IA
• County: Johnson County · 132,710 people
• City population: 23,097
• Metro: Iowa City, IA
• Population (ZIP): 23,097
• Household income: $105,318
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,405 people
• By 2030: 200,014 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 241,428 · +33.8%
• By 2050: 288,144 · +59.7%
• By 2075: 420,009 · +132.8%
• By 2100: 546,596 · +203.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.1) · D 68.4% · R 30.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.5pp · 2024: 38.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.1 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+38.3 2012: D+35.4 2008: D+41.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.37%
• Current HPI: 170.8165
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Iowa City, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Pending — ICAARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $227,500 ICAARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $235,000 ICAARMLS