445 Peninsula Blvd

Lynbrook, NY 11563

$749,999D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,123/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax + insurance: −$1,217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,076
• Net cashflow: $-1,102/mo
• Annual: $-13,230/yr
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $210,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $555k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $512k (31.7% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($727k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $512k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#10 in NY, #221 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Hewlett-Woodmere Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #59 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hewlett Elementary School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 403 students, 26% FRL); Woodmere Middle School (math 62% / reading 73%, grade A-, #98 of 729 statewide, top 14%, 716 students, 26% FRL); George W Hewlett High School (math 95% / reading 97%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 999 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $750k implies a 1193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Lynbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($137k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.