445 Peninsula Blvd · Lynbrook, NY 11563

$749,999

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1950 5,720 sqft lot $437/sqft · 14% above area Est $909k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a beautifully maintained and sun-filled home in the heart of Lynbrook offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and functionality. This spacious 5-bedroom, 2-full-bath residence is thoughtfully designed across multiple levels to accommodate a variety of living needs. The main level features three generously sized bedrooms and a full bathroom, while the upper level offers two additional bedrooms and another full bath ideal for extended family, guests, or a private home office setup. A cozy den area with washer and dryer hookups adds everyday convenience. The fully finished walkout basement provides exceptional bonus living space, perfect for a recreation room, gym, or entertai

Key facts

• 5,720 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Finished full basement with walk-out access; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Multiple laundry locations

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $555k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $512k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $512k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Lynbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#10 in NY, #221 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Hewlett-Woodmere Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #59 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hewlett Elementary School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 403 students, 26% FRL); Woodmere Middle School (math 62% / reading 73%, grade A-, #98 of 729 statewide, top 14%, 716 students, 26% FRL); George W Hewlett High School (math 95% / reading 97%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 999 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($137k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($727k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $750k implies a 1193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $512,320 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $909,366
• List price: $749,999
• Delta: -17.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49 Trafalgar Sq	0.14mi	5/1.5	1,728 (+1%)	12mo	$745,000	$431	80
54 Hollywood Ave	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-6%)	2mo	$670,000	$414	80
24 Everett St	0.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,762 (+3%)	12mo	$690,000	$392	71
37 Oceanview Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,774 (+3%)	11mo	$735,000	$414	66
48 Bayview Ave	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,662 (-3%)	12mo	$785,000	$472	61
21 Fremont Rd	0.45mi	5/2.0	1,908 (+11%)	1mo	$810,000	$425	59
85 Oakland Ave	0.63mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,750 (+2%)	3mo	$829,000	$474	58
186 Stuart Rd	0.51mi	5/2.0	1,850 (+8%)	10mo	$835,000	$451	54
165 Page Rd Rd	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	1,810 (+6%)	6mo	$845,000	$467	54
106 Catlin Pl	0.38mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,922 (+12%)	10mo	$879,000	$457	47
167 Locust St	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,882 (+10%)	9mo	$710,000	$377	43
58 7 St	0.72mi	6/3.0 (+1)	1,900 (+11%)	7mo	$1,050,000	$553	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-191,693
• Equity at exit: $111,827

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-257,108
• Equity at exit: $64,846

Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11563

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax from tax record: −$904 /mo · $10,851/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,076
• Net cashflow: $-1,102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,519

Max offer price $555,242

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-678	-5% $-890	+0% $-1,102	+5% $-1,315	+10% $-1,527
Rent	-10% $-1,507	-5% $-1,305	+0% $-1,102	+5% $-900	+10% $-698
Rate	-1.0pp $-725	-0.5pp $-912	base $-1,102	+0.5pp $-1,297	+1.0pp $-1,495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,500
• Closing costs: $22,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
389 Hamilton Ave Hewlett, NY	5.0	2.0	1650	$4,700	$2.85	8d	1	1.20mi
389 Hamilton Ave Hewlett, NY	5.0	2.0	1644	$4,700	$2.86	12d	1	1.20mi
309 Franklin Ave Hewlett, NY	4.0	2.0	1386	$6,500	$4.69	0d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $749,999 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $749,999 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $749,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $749,999 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $749,999 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $749,999 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $749,999 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $749,999 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $749,999 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $749,999 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $749,999 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $749,999 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $749,999 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $749,999 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $749,999 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $749,999 Active 1532-char remark
17. 2026-05-07
    historical $749,999 1532-char remark
18. 1980-09-01
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,851 · $904/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,763 · $980/mo
• Expected delta: +$912/yr (+$76/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,012
• − Property taxes: −$10,851
• − Insurance: −$3,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,918
• − Management: −$4,918
• − Depreciation: −$21,818
• Taxable loss: −$26,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,429
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hewlett-Woodmere Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3631710
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $112,656
• Composite: 69.89/100
• National rank: #287
• State rank: #59 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lynbrook

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #221

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynbrook, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 22,899
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,899
• Household income: $136,887
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 618.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -652.00%
• Current HPI: 317.1455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1193.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $749,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Coming Soon $749,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $10,851 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.