475 Ballfall Rd

Middletown, CT 06457

$315,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Built 1830 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,561/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$531
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-160/mo
• Annual: $-1,919/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (18.7% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#17 in CT, #1,390 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Middletown School District (urban): math 24% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #113 of 153 in CT (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moody School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #137 of 553 statewide, top 28%, 214 students, 30% FRL); Beman Middle School (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #134 of 175 statewide, top 77%, 968 students, 49% FRL); Middletown High School (math 25% / reading 52%, grade F, #111 of 194 statewide, top 57%, 1,214 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 147 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $229k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.