475 Ballfall Rd · Middletown, CT 06457

$315,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1830 3.30 ac lot $217/sqft · 19% below area Est $402k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming Colonial-style home set on a generous 3.3-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and modern updates. The exterior showcases classic appeal with a welcoming front entry & an attached 2 car garage, all surrounded by open land that provides privacy and endless possibilities. Step inside to discover a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and sleek countertops, ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The main level offers the convenience of a primary bedroom & first-floor laundry, creating an easy and functional layout for homeowners. The renovated bathroom is tastefully finished with modern fixtures and stylish tile work, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Upstairs, you'll find three additional bedrooms, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office setup. With its spacious acreage, thoughtful updates & conveniently located near local amenities, shopping & major routes, this home offers a unique opportunity to enjoy peaceful living while still having all the modern conveniences you need.

Key facts

• Sizable yard
• Large vanity
• Tiled shower

Tags

• SPACIOUS UPDATED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM
• LARGE VANITY
• TILED SHOWER
• SIZABLE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#17 in CT, #1,390 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Middletown School District (urban): math 24% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #113 of 153 in CT (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moody School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #137 of 553 statewide, top 28%, 214 students, 30% FRL); Beman Middle School (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #134 of 175 statewide, top 77%, 968 students, 49% FRL); Middletown High School (math 25% / reading 52%, grade F, #111 of 194 statewide, top 57%, 1,214 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 147 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $229k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,053 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,936
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -21.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
161 Cimarron Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (+4%)	23mo	$369,900	$244	50
75 Knox Blvd	0.22mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,592 (+10%)	20mo	$435,000	$273	44
260 Sisk St	0.68mi	4/1.5	1,666 (+15%)	18mo	$410,000	$246	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,155
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-99,339
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06457

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,795/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,763

Max offer price $286,751

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-71	+0% $-160	+5% $-249	+10% $-338
Rent	-10% $-362	-5% $-261	+0% $-160	+5% $-59	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-80	base $-160	+0.5pp $-242	+1.0pp $-325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this charming Colonial-style home set on a generous 3.3-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and modern updates. The exterior showcases classic appeal with a welcoming front entry & an attached 2 car garage, all surrounded by open land that provides privacy and endless possibilities. Step inside to discover a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and sleek countertops, ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The main level offers the convenience of a primary bedroom & first-floor laundry, creating an easy and functional layout for homeowners. The renovated bathroom is tastefully finished with modern fixtures and stylish tile work, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Upstairs, you'll find three additional bedrooms, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office setup. With its spacious acreage, thoughtful updates & conveniently located near local amenities, shopping & major routes, this home offers a unique opportunity to enjoy peaceful living while still having all the modern conveniences you need.

2. 2026-05-13
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this charming Colonial-style home set on a generous 3.3-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and modern updates. The exterior showcases classic appeal with a welcoming front entry & an attached 2 car garage, all surrounded by open land that provides privacy and endless possibilities. Step inside to discover a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and sleek countertops, ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The main level offers the convenience of a primary bedroom & first-floor laundry, creating an easy and functional layout for homeowners. The renovated bathroom is tastefully finished with modern fixtures and stylish tile work, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Upstairs, you'll find three additional bedrooms, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office setup. With its spacious acreage, thoughtful updates & conveniently located near local amenities, shopping & major routes, this home offers a unique opportunity to enjoy peaceful living while still having all the modern conveniences you need.

3. 2026-05-06
   status Active 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this charming Colonial-style home set on a generous 3.3-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and modern updates. The exterior showcases classic appeal with a welcoming front entry & an attached 2 car garage, all surrounded by open land that provides privacy and endless possibilities. Step inside to discover a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and sleek countertops, ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The main level offers the convenience of a primary bedroom & first-floor laundry, creating an easy and functional layout for homeowners. The renovated bathroom is tastefully finished with modern fixtures and stylish tile work, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Upstairs, you'll find three additional bedrooms, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office setup. With its spacious acreage, thoughtful updates & conveniently located near local amenities, shopping & major routes, this home offers a unique opportunity to enjoy peaceful living while still having all the modern conveniences you need.

4. 2026-05-06
   price $315,000 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this charming Colonial-style home set on a generous 3.3-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and modern updates. The exterior showcases classic appeal with a welcoming front entry & an attached 2 car garage, all surrounded by open land that provides privacy and endless possibilities. Step inside to discover a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and sleek countertops, ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The main level offers the convenience of a primary bedroom & first-floor laundry, creating an easy and functional layout for homeowners. The renovated bathroom is tastefully finished with modern fixtures and stylish tile work, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Upstairs, you'll find three additional bedrooms, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office setup. With its spacious acreage, thoughtful updates & conveniently located near local amenities, shopping & major routes, this home offers a unique opportunity to enjoy peaceful living while still having all the modern conveniences you need.

5. 2026-04-10
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this charming Colonial-style home set on a generous 3.3-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and modern updates. The exterior showcases classic appeal with a welcoming front entry & an attached 2 car garage, all surrounded by open land that provides privacy and endless possibilities. Step inside to discover a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and sleek countertops, ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The main level offers the convenience of a primary bedroom & first-floor laundry, creating an easy and functional layout for homeowners. The renovated bathroom is tastefully finished with modern fixtures and stylish tile work, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Upstairs, you'll find three additional bedrooms, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office setup. With its spacious acreage, thoughtful updates & conveniently located near local amenities, shopping & major routes, this home offers a unique opportunity to enjoy peaceful living while still having all the modern conveniences you need.

6. 2026-04-01
   listed $349,900 Active 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this charming Colonial-style home set on a generous 3.3-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and modern updates. The exterior showcases classic appeal with a welcoming front entry & an attached 2 car garage, all surrounded by open land that provides privacy and endless possibilities. Step inside to discover a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and sleek countertops, ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The main level offers the convenience of a primary bedroom & first-floor laundry, creating an easy and functional layout for homeowners. The renovated bathroom is tastefully finished with modern fixtures and stylish tile work, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Upstairs, you'll find three additional bedrooms, providing plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office setup. With its spacious acreage, thoughtful updates & conveniently located near local amenities, shopping & major routes, this home offers a unique opportunity to enjoy peaceful living while still having all the modern conveniences you need.

7. 2021-09-10
   historical 840-char remark

   Show marketing remark (840 chars)

   Beautiful remodeled 1830 home. All plaster removed and drywall added. 22ft long kitchen, bright white stucco ceilings with recess lighting and all updated black stainless steel appliances. The bathroom is 16ft long with all Italian tile throughout the shower and floor. Relax by taking a hot shower while listening to music through an already installed Bluetooth radio air vent. Enjoy eating in your separate dining area, and relax watching tv in your living room. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms and the lower level is where the master bedroom is with large closet. All new floors throughout the house. Fresh paint inside and outside the house with some touch ups still remaining. Garage is 403 sqft and can fit two standard size vehicles. Basement is extremely old 1830, but is good enough to store items approx 360 sqft. No updates will be done.

8. 2021-09-09
   soldstatus $229,000 Closed 840-char remark

   Show marketing remark (840 chars)

   Beautiful remodeled 1830 home. All plaster removed and drywall added. 22ft long kitchen, bright white stucco ceilings with recess lighting and all updated black stainless steel appliances. The bathroom is 16ft long with all Italian tile throughout the shower and floor. Relax by taking a hot shower while listening to music through an already installed Bluetooth radio air vent. Enjoy eating in your separate dining area, and relax watching tv in your living room. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms and the lower level is where the master bedroom is with large closet. All new floors throughout the house. Fresh paint inside and outside the house with some touch ups still remaining. Garage is 403 sqft and can fit two standard size vehicles. Basement is extremely old 1830, but is good enough to store items approx 360 sqft. No updates will be done.

9. 2021-09-09
   soldstatus $229,000

   Show marketing remark (840 chars)

   Beautiful remodeled 1830 home. All plaster removed and drywall added. 22ft long kitchen, bright white stucco ceilings with recess lighting and all updated black stainless steel appliances. The bathroom is 16ft long with all Italian tile throughout the shower and floor. Relax by taking a hot shower while listening to music through an already installed Bluetooth radio air vent. Enjoy eating in your separate dining area, and relax watching tv in your living room. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms and the lower level is where the master bedroom is with large closet. All new floors throughout the house. Fresh paint inside and outside the house with some touch ups still remaining. Garage is 403 sqft and can fit two standard size vehicles. Basement is extremely old 1830, but is good enough to store items approx 360 sqft. No updates will be done.

10. 2021-06-27
    price $229,000 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Beautiful remodeled 1830 home. All plaster removed and drywall added. 22ft long kitchen, bright white stucco ceilings with recess lighting and all updated black stainless steel appliances. The bathroom is 16ft long with all Italian tile throughout the shower and floor. Relax by taking a hot shower while listening to music through an already installed Bluetooth radio air vent. Enjoy eating in your separate dining area, and relax watching tv in your living room. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms and the lower level is where the master bedroom is with large closet. All new floors throughout the house. Fresh paint inside and outside the house with some touch ups still remaining. Garage is 403 sqft and can fit two standard size vehicles. Basement is extremely old 1830, but is good enough to store items approx 360 sqft. No updates will be done.

11. 2021-06-16
    listed $240,000 Active 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Beautiful remodeled 1830 home. All plaster removed and drywall added. 22ft long kitchen, bright white stucco ceilings with recess lighting and all updated black stainless steel appliances. The bathroom is 16ft long with all Italian tile throughout the shower and floor. Relax by taking a hot shower while listening to music through an already installed Bluetooth radio air vent. Enjoy eating in your separate dining area, and relax watching tv in your living room. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms and the lower level is where the master bedroom is with large closet. All new floors throughout the house. Fresh paint inside and outside the house with some touch ups still remaining. Garage is 403 sqft and can fit two standard size vehicles. Basement is extremely old 1830, but is good enough to store items approx 360 sqft. No updates will be done.

12. 2018-02-20
    soldstatus $155,000
13. 2016-01-14
    historical
14. 2015-05-26
    listed $154,900
15. 2014-07-01
    historical
16. 2013-11-28
    listed $164,900
17. 2013-11-27
    historical
18. 2013-11-04
    listed $197,500
19. 2012-12-28
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,795 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,768 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: +$973/yr (+$81/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,795
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,458
• − Management: −$2,458
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$7,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,768
• After-tax cash flow: $-150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown School District
• NCES district ID: 0902490
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,733
• Composite: 30.47/100
• National rank: #6224
• State rank: #113 of 153 in CT

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #1390

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, CT
• County: Middlesex County · 63,941 people
• City population: 46,720
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• Population (ZIP): 46,720
• Household income: $79,463
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2196.0

Population outlook (Lower Connecticut River Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 188,651

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lower Connecticut River Valley

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 55.9% · R 42.4% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -470.20%
• Current HPI: 255.1597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+384.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $315,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $349,900 Smart MLS
• 2021-09-10 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2021-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-09 Sold (MLS) $229,000 Smart MLS
• 2021-06-27 Price Changed $229,000 Smart MLS
• 2021-06-16 Listed $240,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-14 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2015-05-26 Listed $154,900 Smart MLS
• 2014-07-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2013-11-28 Listed $164,900 Smart MLS
• 2013-11-27 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2013-11-04 Listed $197,500 Smart MLS
• 2012-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,795 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.