412 E 136th St

New York, NY 10454

$590,000B-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,356 sqft · Built 1901 · SingleFamily · Active · 371 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,194/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,094
• Tax + insurance: −$438
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,301
• Net cashflow: $1,361/mo
• Annual: $16,337/yr
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.89%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $165,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $590k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $590k).
• It's been on market 371 days — a 12% lower offer ($519k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $519k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 19 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $135k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $450k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $165k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,194/mo this rent would consume 309% of the median local household income ($24k/yr) (locally 5002% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 371 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.