412 E 136th St · New York, NY 10454

$590,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 371 Days on market

Built 1901

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* * Contract fell through. Back on the market. * * Located on the historic Bertine Block in Mott Haven, This landmarked 20' wide shell is a complete blank canvas for the next owner to build the exact home of their dreams. Approved architectural plans are available and the permits have already been filed. Just bring your crew and begin the work! The max buildable here is over 4,000 square feet on a 20'x100' lot. Annual taxes are just $2,302 or $192/month. Situated just over the bridge from Harlem, This district is named for developer Edward D. Bertine who built his home and nine other Queen Anne style row houses here between 1891 and 1895. Three other two-story brick row houses, built

Key facts

• 20x100 lot
• Permits filed
• Landmarked shell

Tags

• HISTORIC BERTINE BLOCK
• LANDMARKED SHELL
• APPROVED ARCHITECTURAL PLANS
• PERMITS FILED
• 20X100 LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No pets allowed in building
• Financial info: Annual property tax approximately $2,304
• HOA & community: Association fees billed monthly

Exterior

• Home design: 2-story property; Entry level on first floor
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 20 x 100

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details: see remarks

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $590,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$1,470,144) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $590k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $590k).
• Recommended offer: $519k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 19 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,194/mo this rent would consume 309% of the median local household income ($24k/yr) (locally 5002% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $165k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 371 days — a 12% lower offer ($519k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $135k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $450k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $519,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 371 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.89%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,470,144
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2211 Third Ave Unit 9C	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,004 (-15%)	23mo	$1,250,000	$624	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.67% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $196,698
• Equity at exit: $322,420

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $499,217
• Equity at exit: $546,835

Cash invested: $165,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10454

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,094
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,302/yr
• Insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,301
• Net cashflow: $1,361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,471

Max offer price $590,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,695	-5% $1,528	+0% $1,361	+5% $1,194	+10% $1,027
Rent	-10% $872	-5% $1,117	+0% $1,361	+5% $1,606	+10% $1,851
Rate	-1.0pp $1,659	-0.5pp $1,512	base $1,361	+0.5pp $1,209	+1.0pp $1,053

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,500
• Closing costs: $17,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32 E 126th St Unit 3 New York, NY	5.0	2.0	1600	$6,000	$3.75	20d	1	0.93mi
12 W 127th St Unit 1 New York, NY	3.0	3.5	1899	$8,999	$4.74	25d	1	1.01mi
114 W 131st St Apt 2 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,750	$3.38	25d	1	1.13mi
114 W 131st St Apt 2 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,150	$3.08	19d	1	1.13mi
261 W 131st St Unit 1 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2400	$7,000	$2.92	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $590,000 Active 371 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $590,000 Active 368 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $590,000 Active 367 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 367 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 365 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 363 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $650,000 Active 359 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 358 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $650,000 Active 353 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $650,000 Active 351 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $650,000 Active 350 DOM
12. 2026-04-24
    status Active
13. 2026-01-03
    status Active
14. 2025-11-20
    status Active
15. 2025-09-12
    price $650,000
16. 2025-09-03
    status Active
17. 2025-07-24
    status Active
18. 2025-05-29
    price $695,000
19. 2025-02-22
    listed $725,000 Active
20. 2021-05-14
    price $825,000
21. 2020-11-17
    listed $899,000 Active
22. 2020-11-17
    listed $899,000 Active
23. 2016-06-16
    listed $602,000
24. 2016-06-16
    listed $602,000
25. 2016-06-09
    soldstatus $450,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,302 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,137 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,834/yr (+$320/mo · 166.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,049
• − Property taxes: −$2,302
• − Insurance: −$2,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,946
• − Management: −$5,946
• − Depreciation: −$17,164
• Taxable income: $6,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,673
• After-tax cash flow: $14,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 39,570
• Household income: $24,086
• Rent vs Own: 93.2% rent · 6.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5002.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Black 23% Two or more races 14% White 3% Native American 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 29% Dominican 17%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Current HPI: 238.974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+44.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2026-01-03 Relisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2025-11-20 Relisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $650,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2025-09-03 Relisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2025-07-24 Relisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $695,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2025-02-22 Listed $725,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2021-05-14 Price Changed $825,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2020-11-17 Listed $899,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2020-11-17 Listed $899,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2016-06-16 Listed $602,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2016-06-16 Listed $602,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2016-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,302 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.