10 Arlington Dr

Rotonda, FL 33946

$625,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax + insurance: −$1,020
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,087
• Net cashflow: $-230/mo
• Annual: $-2,758/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $175,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $584k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $518k (17.2% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $518k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#548 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vineland Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 579 students, 45% FRL); L. A. Ainger Middle School (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 720 students, 40% FRL); Lemon Bay High School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,360 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 54% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 916 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $625k implies a 287% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Rotonda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.