643 Private Road 7054 Pr

Gause, TX 77857

$138,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $99/mo
• Annual: $1,194/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $38,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (12.4% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gause ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #464 of 1,141 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Milam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Milam County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.