643 Private Road 7054 Pr · Gause, TX 77857

$138,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1996 1.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well maintained and updated home on appx 1.36ac Large trees. Lot backs up to large ranching property. Home has recently had new roof, new paint, new AC, new insulated windows and more. Move in ready

Key facts

• Private road
• Open views
• Pasture views

Tags

• PRIVATE ROAD
• OPEN VIEWS
• RURAL SETTING
• PASTURE VIEWS
• FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• UPDATED AND REMODELED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered space; Total parking for 4 vehicles; Garage available (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane; Public water; Septic tank; Sewer connected
• Home design: East-facing; Resale property
• Construction: HardiPlank exterior; Shingle roof; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Shed(s); Partial barbed wire fencing; Back yard; Level yard; Few to moderate trees; Pie-shaped lot; Views; Horses allowed with pasture

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Main level primary suite; Open floorplan; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gause ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #464 of 1,141 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Milam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Milam County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,865 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $21,741
• Equity at exit: $60,799

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $69,952
• Equity at exit: $92,737

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77857

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $890/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $138,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $138,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $138,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $138,000 Active
16. 2020-06-22
    soldstatus
17. 2017-10-11
    soldstatus 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Very well maintained and updated home on appx 1.36ac Large trees. Lot backs up to large ranching property. Home has recently had new roof, new paint, new AC, new insulated windows and more. Move in ready

18. 2017-08-16
    listed $57,900 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Very well maintained and updated home on appx 1.36ac Large trees. Lot backs up to large ranching property. Home has recently had new roof, new paint, new AC, new insulated windows and more. Move in ready

19. 2016-03-29
    listed $59,000
20. 1993-11-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,635/yr (+$136/mo · 183.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$890
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$1,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$274
• After-tax cash flow: $1,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gause ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820520
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,510
• Composite: 42.32/100
• National rank: #6956
• State rank: #464 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Gause

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,261

Population outlook (Milam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,051 people
• By 2030: 23,613 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 22,693 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 21,879 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 20,974 · -12.8%
• By 2100: 19,414 · -19.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Milam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.3) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -57.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.3 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+49.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.84%
• Current HPI: 100.7109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+133.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $138,000 Unlock MLS
• 2020-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-11 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2017-08-16 Listed $57,900 BCSRMLS
• 2016-03-29 Listed $59,000 BCSRMLS
• 1993-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+22.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $890 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.