21155 Heritage Hills Ln

Wheatland, MO 65724

$179,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2007 · Other · Pending · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$14
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-169/mo
• Annual: $-2,027/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (34.9% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#810 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermitage R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #185 of 535 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hermitage Elem. (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 1,115 statewide, top 35%, 138 students, 58% FRL); Hermitage Middle (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 50 students, 44% FRL); Hermitage High (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #377 of 521 statewide, top 73%, 81 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP.
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Wheatland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?