21155 Heritage Hills Ln · Wheatland, MO 65724

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Other public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2007 0.89 ac lot $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 21155 Heritage Hills located in Pittsburg, MO This one has all the features to make it the perfect home for lake living. Nestled on a gorgeous . 89 acre lot surrounded by trees in the Heritage Hills neighborhood. This home offers a nice layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, utility room (washer/dryer conveys) off the kitchen and a great kitchen for cooking and entertaining. The kitchen has a functional design that includes all appliances, pantry, lots of cabinets/storage, breakfast area, kitchen bar/island and dining area with a nice flow to the living room. The living room features an awesome stone wood burning fireplace with wood mantel. Great lighting throughout with sky l

Key facts

• Gorgeous lot
• Enclosed sun room
• 0.89 acre lot

Tags

• GORGEOUS LOT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN DESIGN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• ENCLOSED SUN ROOM
• OUTBUILDING WITH ELECTRIC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 0.89 acre; Private road frontage
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $170 (includes water)

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage; Circular driveway; Driveway; Garage faces side
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile/modular); Residential property in the HERITAGE HILLS subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Permanent foundation; Above-grade finished living area
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Deck; Side porch; Patio; Shed(s); Level lot with few trees; Gravel road access on a private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s) (bedroom feature)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Electric heating with forced air; Fireplace(s) for supplemental heat
• Interior features: Pantry; Laminate counters; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings, skylights, drapes and blinds; Masonry wood-burning fireplace with stone surround and glass doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Wheatland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#810 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermitage R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #185 of 535 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hermitage Elem. (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 1,115 statewide, top 35%, 138 students, 58% FRL); Hermitage Middle (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 50 students, 44% FRL); Hermitage High (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #377 of 521 statewide, top 73%, 81 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $116,499 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $86,657
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $263,505
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65724

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $744/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $149,162

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-68	-5% $-118	+0% $-169	+5% $-220	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-261	-5% $-215	+0% $-169	+5% $-123	+10% $-77
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-123	base $-169	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-28
   price $179,000
3. 2025-12-30
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $744 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$993/yr (+$83/mo · 133.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$744
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$5,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermitage R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2914310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,066
• Composite: 40.92/100
• National rank: #7513
• State rank: #185 of 535 in MO

Livability — Wheatland

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #810
• US rank: #24271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,728

Population outlook (Hickory County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,206 people
• By 2030: 7,690 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 6,780 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,076 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 5,088 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 4,489 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Italian 17% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickory

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 216.4684
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $179,000 SOMO
• 2025-12-30 Listed $185,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $744 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.