169 County Road 318

Jonesboro, TX 76538

$195,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,538/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $16/mo
• Annual: $188/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($188/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jonesboro ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #930 of 1,141 in TX (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $195k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.