169 County Road 318 · Jonesboro, TX 76538

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1975 0.26 ac lot $147/sqft · 46% below area Est $362k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is now under auction terms. Property is being sold As Is. This bank owned property in Jonesboro, Texas, has lots of potential. This 1325 square feet home sits on a . 26 acre lot and has three bedrooms, one full bath, kitchen, and family room/dining room. The home is bricked on all four sides with a metal roof and has a 7' X 16' covered front porch and concrete walkway from the front porch around the house to the back door. There are two storage buildings, and one measures 16' X 24' and the other measures 12' X 12'. ~ Property is to be sold in as is condition. Seller does not provide a survey or wood destroying pest inspection. Seller acknowledges the buyer's right to conduct inspections at the purchaser's cost.

Key facts

• Gray brick exterior
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BUILT-IN LAUNDRY
• GRAY BRICK EXTERIOR
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Back yard fencing; Level lot; Outside city limits; County road frontage

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating included; One cooling unit
• Interior features: Built-in features; Tub with shower; Vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Breakfast area; Custom cabinets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($188/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jonesboro ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #930 of 1,141 in TX (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $195k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,842 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,707
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -46.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
449 Fm 1602	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+0%)	23mo	$375,000	$282	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $34,614
• Equity at exit: $98,523

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $109,675
• Equity at exit: $160,867

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76538

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,150/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $71	+0% $16	+5% $-40	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-45	+0% $16	+5% $76	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $65	base $16	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $195,000 Active 1092-char remark
16. 2016-10-06
    soldstatus
17. 2011-08-29
    soldstatus $32,500 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    This property is now under auction terms. Property is being sold As Is. This bank owned property in Jonesboro, Texas, has lots of potential. This 1325 square feet home sits on a . 26 acre lot and has three bedrooms, one full bath, kitchen, and family room/dining room. The home is bricked on all four sides with a metal roof and has a 7' X 16' covered front porch and concrete walkway from the front porch around the house to the back door. There are two storage buildings, and one measures 16' X 24' and the other measures 12' X 12'. ~ Property is to be sold in as is condition. Seller does not provide a survey or wood destroying pest inspection. Seller acknowledges the buyer's right to conduct inspections at the purchaser's cost.

18. 2011-03-29
    listed $26,500 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    This property is now under auction terms. Property is being sold As Is. This bank owned property in Jonesboro, Texas, has lots of potential. This 1325 square feet home sits on a . 26 acre lot and has three bedrooms, one full bath, kitchen, and family room/dining room. The home is bricked on all four sides with a metal roof and has a 7' X 16' covered front porch and concrete walkway from the front porch around the house to the back door. There are two storage buildings, and one measures 16' X 24' and the other measures 12' X 12'. ~ Property is to be sold in as is condition. Seller does not provide a survey or wood destroying pest inspection. Seller acknowledges the buyer's right to conduct inspections at the purchaser's cost.

19. 2011-03-03
    listed $26,500

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    "This property is now under auction terms". Foreclosed property is being sold as is. This property in Jonesboro, Texas, has lots of potential. This 1325 square feet home sits on a . 264 acre lot and has three bedrooms, one full bath, kitchen, and familyroom/dining room. The home is bricked on all four sides with a metal roof and has a 7' X 16' covered front porch and concrete walkway from the front porch around the house to the back door. There are two storage buildings.

20. 2008-01-11
    soldstatus
21. 1996-09-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,419/yr (+$202/mo · 210.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,150
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$771
• After-tax cash flow: $959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jonesboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824900
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,905
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11246
• State rank: #930 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Jonesboro

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 996

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,553 people
• By 2030: 7,212 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 6,566 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 5,976 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 5,077 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,196 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.3) · D 14.0% · R 85.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -53.3pp · 2024: -71.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.3 2020: R+68.4 2016: R+71.4 2012: R+65.5 2008: R+53.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Current HPI: 153.5315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+635.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $195,000 CTXMLS
• 2016-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-08-29 Sold (MLS) $32,500 CTXMLS
• 2011-03-29 Listed $26,500 CTXMLS
• 2011-03-03 Listed $26,500 CTXMLS
• 2008-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,150 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.