18211 SE Old Trail Dr W

Jupiter Farms, FL 33478

$2,125,000D+

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,801 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 331 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,144
• Tax + insurance: −$2,349
• HOA: −$210
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,725
• Net cashflow: $4,072/mo
• Annual: $48,870/yr
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.21%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $595,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.12M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($49k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $2.12M).
• It's been on market 331 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.87M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.87M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $64k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#617 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Lake Elementary School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 441 students, 38% FRL); Dr. David L. Anderson Middle School (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,035 students, 63% FRL); South Fork High School (math 36% / reading 48%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,810 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 16246% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $2.12M implies a 1114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 331 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?