18211 SE Old Trail Dr W · Jupiter Farms, FL 33478

$2,125,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,801 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 331 Days on market

Built 2023 0.55 ac lot $559/sqft · 34% above area Est $1589k · 34% over $210/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced below recent appriasal, this newly built, one-story CBS home offers an exceptional living experience right on the Old Trail golf course. The open floor plan boasts high ceilings and impact windows and doors, blending style with security. The chef-inspired kitchen is a true standout, featuring double islands and stunning waterfall quartz countertopsâ ”perfect for entertaining. The thoughtful split floor plan provides privacy, with a spacious primary suite that includes two walk-in closets and a luxurious free-standing tub. Additional features include 3 bedrooms, an office, a formal dining room, and a cabana bath. Enjoy the peace of mind provided by a 24-hour secured gate, a low HOA fee, and optional membership opportunities. Short-term, low-interest seller financing available.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Primary suite
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• DOUBLE ISLANDS
• WATERFALL QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.12M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($49k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $2.12M).
• Recommended offer: $1.87M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#617 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $64k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 331 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.87M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 16246% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $2.12M implies a 1114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,870,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 331 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.21%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,588,747
• List price: $2,125,000
• Delta: 33.75%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18462 SE Old Trail Dr W	0.21mi	4/3.5	3,360 (-12%)	4mo	$1,270,000	$378	64
4034 SE Hammock Pl	0.71mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,647 (-4%)	8mo	$1,100,000	$302	44
2505 SE Ranch Acres Cir	0.60mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,551 (-7%)	16mo	$1,580,000	$445	43
18798 SE Old Trail Dr W	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,319 (-13%)	5mo	$1,350,000	$407	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-85,228
• Equity at exit: $316,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $258,700
• Equity at exit: $183,731

Cash invested: $595,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33478

• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,144
• Tax from tax record: −$1,463 /mo · $17,561/yr
• Insurance: −$885
• HOA: −$210
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,725
• Net cashflow: $4,072

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,345

Max offer price $2,125,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,275	-5% $4,674	+0% $4,072	+5% $3,471	+10% $2,870
Rent	-10% $2,295	-5% $3,184	+0% $4,072	+5% $4,961	+10% $5,850
Rate	-1.0pp $5,143	-0.5pp $4,613	base $4,072	+0.5pp $3,522	+1.0pp $2,962

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $531,250
• Closing costs: $63,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18337 SE Old Trail Dr W Jupiter, FL	4.0	4.5	4626	$22,500	$4.86	24d	1	0.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $210 · $2,520/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,125,000 Active 331 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,125,000 Active 328 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,125,000 Active 327 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,125,000 Active 326 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,125,000 Active 325 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $2,125,000 Active 323 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,125,000 Active 322 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $2,125,000 Active 320 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,125,000 Active 319 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,125,000 Active 318 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,125,000 Active 317 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,125,000 Active 313 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,125,000 Active 312 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,125,000 Active 311 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,125,000 Active 310 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 688-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,125,000 Active 309 DOM
18. 2026-05-03
    status Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Priced below recent appriasal, this newly built, one-story CBS home offers an exceptional living experience right on the Old Trail golf course. The open floor plan boasts high ceilings and impact windows and doors, blending style with security. The chef-inspired kitchen is a true standout, featuring double islands and stunning waterfall quartz countertopsâ ”perfect for entertaining. The thoughtful split floor plan provides privacy, with a spacious primary suite that includes two walk-in closets and a luxurious free-standing tub. Additional features include 3 bedrooms, an office, a formal dining room, and a cabana bath. Enjoy the peace of mind provided by a 24-hour secured gate, a low HOA fee, and optional membership opportunities. Short-term, low-interest seller financing available.

19. 2026-04-28
    historical Active Under Contract 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Priced below recent appriasal, this newly built, one-story CBS home offers an exceptional living experience right on the Old Trail golf course. The open floor plan boasts high ceilings and impact windows and doors, blending style with security. The chef-inspired kitchen is a true standout, featuring double islands and stunning waterfall quartz countertopsâ ”perfect for entertaining. The thoughtful split floor plan provides privacy, with a spacious primary suite that includes two walk-in closets and a luxurious free-standing tub. Additional features include 3 bedrooms, an office, a formal dining room, and a cabana bath. Enjoy the peace of mind provided by a 24-hour secured gate, a low HOA fee, and optional membership opportunities. Short-term, low-interest seller financing available.

20. 2026-04-09
    listed $13,000
21. 2026-04-09
    historical $13,000
22. 2025-11-12
    price $2,125,000 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Priced below recent appriasal, this newly built, one-story CBS home offers an exceptional living experience right on the Old Trail golf course. The open floor plan boasts high ceilings and impact windows and doors, blending style with security. The chef-inspired kitchen is a true standout, featuring double islands and stunning waterfall quartz countertopsâ ”perfect for entertaining. The thoughtful split floor plan provides privacy, with a spacious primary suite that includes two walk-in closets and a luxurious free-standing tub. Additional features include 3 bedrooms, an office, a formal dining room, and a cabana bath. Enjoy the peace of mind provided by a 24-hour secured gate, a low HOA fee, and optional membership opportunities. Short-term, low-interest seller financing available.

23. 2025-11-12
    status Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Priced below recent appriasal, this newly built, one-story CBS home offers an exceptional living experience right on the Old Trail golf course. The open floor plan boasts high ceilings and impact windows and doors, blending style with security. The chef-inspired kitchen is a true standout, featuring double islands and stunning waterfall quartz countertopsâ ”perfect for entertaining. The thoughtful split floor plan provides privacy, with a spacious primary suite that includes two walk-in closets and a luxurious free-standing tub. Additional features include 3 bedrooms, an office, a formal dining room, and a cabana bath. Enjoy the peace of mind provided by a 24-hour secured gate, a low HOA fee, and optional membership opportunities. Short-term, low-interest seller financing available.

24. 2025-08-05
    listed $13,000
25. 2025-06-25
    historical 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Priced below recent appriasal, this newly built, one-story CBS home offers an exceptional living experience right on the Old Trail golf course. The open floor plan boasts high ceilings and impact windows and doors, blending style with security. The chef-inspired kitchen is a true standout, featuring double islands and stunning waterfall quartz countertopsâ ”perfect for entertaining. The thoughtful split floor plan provides privacy, with a spacious primary suite that includes two walk-in closets and a luxurious free-standing tub. Additional features include 3 bedrooms, an office, a formal dining room, and a cabana bath. Enjoy the peace of mind provided by a 24-hour secured gate, a low HOA fee, and optional membership opportunities. Short-term, low-interest seller financing available.

26. 2025-03-07
    listed $2,200,000 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Priced below recent appriasal, this newly built, one-story CBS home offers an exceptional living experience right on the Old Trail golf course. The open floor plan boasts high ceilings and impact windows and doors, blending style with security. The chef-inspired kitchen is a true standout, featuring double islands and stunning waterfall quartz countertopsâ ”perfect for entertaining. The thoughtful split floor plan provides privacy, with a spacious primary suite that includes two walk-in closets and a luxurious free-standing tub. Additional features include 3 bedrooms, an office, a formal dining room, and a cabana bath. Enjoy the peace of mind provided by a 24-hour secured gate, a low HOA fee, and optional membership opportunities. Short-term, low-interest seller financing available.

27. 2025-03-06
    historical
28. 2024-05-31
    price $2,200,000
29. 2024-03-16
    listed $2,350,000 Active
30. 2024-03-07
    historical
31. 2023-12-19
    listed $2,497,500 Active
32. 2017-04-28
    soldstatus $175,000
33. 2017-04-27
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed
34. 2017-04-15
    status Pending
35. 2017-03-16
    listed $199,000 Active
36. 1990-02-15
    soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $17,561 · $1,463/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,638 · $1,470/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $270,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$119,033
• − Property taxes: −$17,561
• − Insurance: −$10,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,600
• − Management: −$21,600
• − HOA: −$2,520
• − Depreciation: −$61,818
• Taxable income: $15,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,658
• After-tax cash flow: $45,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jupiter Farms

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #617
• US rank: #11894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,205

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -306.11%
• Current HPI: 427.5178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-83.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed for Rent $13,000 RMLSFL
• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $13,000 GFLMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $2,125,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-12 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed for Rent $13,000 GFLMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $2,200,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-03-06 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $2,200,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-03-16 Listed $2,350,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-03-07 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2023-12-19 Listed $2,497,500 MARMLS
• 2017-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-27 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Beaches MLS
• 2017-04-15 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2017-03-16 Listed $199,000 Beaches MLS
• 1990-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $17,561 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.