455 Lyon Ave

Marshall, MO 65340

$125,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · Built 1948 · Other · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,065/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $44/mo
• Annual: $524/yr
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($524/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#62 in MO, #4,390 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall (town): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #296 of 324 in MO (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bueker Middle (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #339 of 391 statewide, top 87%, 701 students, 69% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Saline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saline County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in Marshall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.