13 Birch Dr

Auburn, NY 13021

$73,800B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $928/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$387
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $223/mo
• Annual: $2,673/yr
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.93%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $20,664

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($928 rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $510 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#298 in NY, #4,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, employment D-.
• Union Springs Central School District (rural): math 59% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #220 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Andrew J Smith Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 339 students, 41% FRL); Andrew J Smith Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 339 students, 41% FRL); Union Springs High School (math 95% / reading 90%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 233 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 7.6% in Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.