13 Birch Dr · Auburn, NY 13021

$73,800

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · Manufactured · 82 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for low maintenance living? This brand new, 1 bedroom home located in a quiet community on a dead end street may be the perfect home for you! This home comes with a large bedroom, a spacious closet, and a walk-in shower. A shed is included for your storage needs. Washer and dryer connections are conveniently located inside the home. Taxes, water, sewer, and trash are included in the lot rent. Resident pays for gas, electric, and cable.

Key facts

• Included shed
• Large bedroom
• Dead end street

Tags

• QUIET COMMUNITY
• DEAD END STREET
• LARGE BEDROOM
• SPACIOUS CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• INCLUDED SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($928 rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 7.6% in Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#298 in NY, #4,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, employment D-.
• Union Springs Central School District (rural): math 59% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #220 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Andrew J Smith Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 339 students, 41% FRL); Andrew J Smith Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 339 students, 41% FRL); Union Springs High School (math 95% / reading 90%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 233 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $510 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $69,372 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.93%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,240
• Equity at exit: $11,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $20,272
• Equity at exit: $6,381

Cash invested: $20,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13021

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$387
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$92 /mo · $1,107/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $646

Max offer price $73,800

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $248	+0% $223	+5% $197	+10% $172
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $186	+0% $223	+5% $259	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $241	base $223	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,450
• Closing costs: $2,214
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $73,800 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $73,800 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,800 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,800 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,800 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,800 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $73,800 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $73,800 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $73,800 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $73,800 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,800 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $73,800 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $73,800 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,800 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $73,800 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $73,800 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Are you looking for low maintenance living? This brand new, 1 bedroom home located in a quiet community on a dead end street may be the perfect home for you! This home comes with a large bedroom, a spacious closet, and a walk-in shower. A shed is included for your storage needs. Washer and dryer connections are conveniently located inside the home. Taxes, water, sewer, and trash are included in the lot rent. Resident pays for gas, electric, and cable.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,134
• − Property taxes: −$1,107
• − Insurance: −$369
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$890
• − Management: −$890
• − Depreciation: −$2,147
• Taxable income: $1,592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$382
• After-tax cash flow: $2,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 None rehab

This brand new, 1-bedroom manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers low maintenance living and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Springs Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629250
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,545
• Composite: 52.52/100
• National rank: #1564
• State rank: #220 of 590 in NY

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #4814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cayuga County · 37,247 people
• City population: 37,247
• Metro: Auburn, NY
• Population (ZIP): 37,247
• Household income: $60,712
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1449.0

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.53%
• Current HPI: 338.5537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Auburn, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $73,800 UNYREIS