809 South St

Newburgh, NY 12550

$279,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,506/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$744
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-227/mo
• Annual: $-2,729/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (10.2% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 384 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $279k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?