809 South St · Newburgh, NY 12550

$279,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1910 2,614 sqft lot $268/sqft · 22% below area Est $357k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, one bath home with a detached flex studio in a spacious yard, for sale in the City of Newburgh! This home is a fantastic light renovation project with good bones and a conscientious owner in need of a quick closing. A kitchen, dining room and living room flow together on the first floor. Upstairs there are three bedrooms (two large and one smaller) plus a full bathroom. Well maintained mechanicals in a full unfinished basement round out the main property. Next to the home you will find a driveway for private parking, and in the rear of the home there is a spacious backyard plus a converted garage. The garage structure has heat and electric and has been used as a spacious work-from-home-dream spot. BONUS! Steps from a delicious tacos joint, just on the other side of your fence. A great home with flex space, priced to sell.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Spacious backyard
• Private parking

Tags

• DETACHED FLEX STUDIO
• SPACIOUS YARD
• WELL MAINTAINED MECHANICALS
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• PRIVATE PARKING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 384 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $279k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,821 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,950
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -21.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64 Thompson St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (+3%)	18mo	$295,000	$276	70
106 Wilson Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-0%)	12mo	$389,999	$376	68
23 Oak St	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,155 (+11%)	1mo	$375,000	$325	62
54 Wilkin St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,070 (+3%)	13mo	$60,000	$56	54
36 Wintergreen Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+4%)	5mo	$390,000	$361	53
114 Dupont Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,122 (+8%)	3mo	$265,000	$236	53
104 Dupont	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-2%)	14mo	$230,000	$225	52
147 Dupont Ave	0.48mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,156 (+11%)	1mo	$335,000	$290	51
50 Stewart Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	10mo	$450,000	$417	51
20 Willella Pl	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	18mo	$390,000	$387	48
547 South St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-3%)	22mo	$170,000	$168	47
116 Dupont Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	960 (-8%)	21mo	$355,000	$370	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-65,325
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-97,531
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$628 /mo · $7,534/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,794

Max offer price $238,821

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-148	+0% $-227	+5% $-306	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-425	-5% $-326	+0% $-227	+5% $-128	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-87	-0.5pp $-156	base $-227	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
62 Poplar St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.5	1272	$3,000	$2.36	24d	1	0.37mi
171 West St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.5	1299	$2,800	$2.16	24d	1	0.77mi
20 Pierces Rd Unit 3 Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.5	1071	$1,900	$1.77	24d	1	0.83mi
61 Stewart Ave Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	975	$2,295	$2.35	45d	1	0.85mi
9 Arlington Pl Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	15d	1	0.88mi
268 Carpenter Ave Unit 1 Newburgh, NY	3.0	2.0	950	$2,600	$2.74	24d	1	1.44mi
259 1st St Newburgh, NY	3.0	2.0	883	$2,000	$2.27	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $279,000 Pending 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $279,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-05-09
   price $279,000 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   Three bedroom, one bath home with a detached flex studio in a spacious yard, for sale in the City of Newburgh! This home is a fantastic light renovation project with good bones and a conscientious owner in need of a quick closing. A kitchen, dining room and living room flow together on the first floor. Upstairs there are three bedrooms (two large and one smaller) plus a full bathroom. Well maintained mechanicals in a full unfinished basement round out the main property. Next to the home you will find a driveway for private parking, and in the rear of the home there is a spacious backyard plus a converted garage. The garage structure has heat and electric and has been used as a spacious work-from-home-dream spot. BONUS! Steps from a delicious tacos joint, just on the other side of your fence. A great home with flex space, priced to sell.

7. 2026-03-23
   price $280,000 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   Three bedroom, one bath home with a detached flex studio in a spacious yard, for sale in the City of Newburgh! This home is a fantastic light renovation project with good bones and a conscientious owner in need of a quick closing. A kitchen, dining room and living room flow together on the first floor. Upstairs there are three bedrooms (two large and one smaller) plus a full bathroom. Well maintained mechanicals in a full unfinished basement round out the main property. Next to the home you will find a driveway for private parking, and in the rear of the home there is a spacious backyard plus a converted garage. The garage structure has heat and electric and has been used as a spacious work-from-home-dream spot. BONUS! Steps from a delicious tacos joint, just on the other side of your fence. A great home with flex space, priced to sell.

8. 2026-02-18
   listed $299,000 Active 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   Three bedroom, one bath home with a detached flex studio in a spacious yard, for sale in the City of Newburgh! This home is a fantastic light renovation project with good bones and a conscientious owner in need of a quick closing. A kitchen, dining room and living room flow together on the first floor. Upstairs there are three bedrooms (two large and one smaller) plus a full bathroom. Well maintained mechanicals in a full unfinished basement round out the main property. Next to the home you will find a driveway for private parking, and in the rear of the home there is a spacious backyard plus a converted garage. The garage structure has heat and electric and has been used as a spacious work-from-home-dream spot. BONUS! Steps from a delicious tacos joint, just on the other side of your fence. A great home with flex space, priced to sell.

9. 2013-08-13
   soldstatus $104,500
10. 2013-07-31
    soldstatus $104,500 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    A perfect place to start! This 3 bedroom has been renovated in 2005 featuring an updated kitchen, bathroom, roof, hardwood floors, and some of the windows throughout. Enjoy a private fenced in backyard with an additional outbuilding that can be used as a private getaway room or office. All this and more located within minutes to all major highways and shopping.

11. 2013-07-31
    soldstatus $104,500

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    A perfect place to start! This 3 bedroom has been renovated in 2005 featuring an updated kitchen, bathroom, roof, hardwood floors, and some of the windows throughout. Enjoy a private fenced in backyard with an additional outbuilding that can be used as a private getaway room or office. All this and more located within minutes to all major highways and shopping.

12. 2013-06-15
    soldstatus $104,500
13. 2013-05-27
    price $104,900
14. 2013-05-27
    historical
15. 2013-01-07
    listed $104,900
16. 2012-07-05
    listed $104,900 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    A perfect place to start! This 3 bedroom has been renovated in 2005 featuring an updated kitchen, bathroom, roof, hardwood floors, and some of the windows throughout. Enjoy a private fenced in backyard with an additional outbuilding that can be used as a private getaway room or office. All this and more located within minutes to all major highways and shopping.

17. 2012-07-05
    listed $104,500

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    A perfect place to start! This 3 bedroom has been renovated in 2005 featuring an updated kitchen, bathroom, roof, hardwood floors, and some of the windows throughout. Enjoy a private fenced in backyard with an additional outbuilding that can be used as a private getaway room or office. All this and more located within minutes to all major highways and shopping.

18. 2012-07-05
    listed $104,900

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    A perfect place to start! This 3 bedroom has been renovated in 2005 featuring an updated kitchen, bathroom, roof, hardwood floors, and some of the windows throughout. Enjoy a private fenced in backyard with an additional outbuilding that can be used as a private getaway room or office. All this and more located within minutes to all major highways and shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,534 · $628/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,534 · $628/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$7,534
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,406
• − Management: −$2,406
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$7,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,779
• After-tax cash flow: $-950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #17021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 55,152
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $280,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $104,500 Public Records
• 2013-07-31 Sold (MLS) $104,500 HGMLS
• 2013-07-31 Sold (MLS) $104,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-15 Sold (MLS) $104,500 HVCRMLS
• 2013-05-27 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2013-05-27 Price Changed $104,900 HGMLS
• 2013-01-07 Listed $104,900 HVCRMLS
• 2012-07-05 Listed $104,900 HVCRMLS
• 2012-07-05 Listed $104,500 HGMLS
• 2012-07-05 Listed $104,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,534 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.